Israel Brief: Friday, November 21

Diplomacy Pretends the War Paused; Gaza’s Tunnels and Lebanon’s Skies Say Otherwise

Shabbat shalom, friends.

The map today is brutally consistent: every place the diplomats say is “stabilizing” is exactly where the next round is already being prepared. In Gaza, the IDF is pulling terrorists out of tunnels under UNRWA compounds while Hamas sends more gunmen across the Yellow Line. In Lebanon, the prime minister talks border negotiations while Hezbollah calls disarmament a “grave sin” and Israel quietly shifts from pinpricks to strike waves. Inside Israel, the October 7 inquiry and the draft law are the questions that decide how long this country can keep carrying a multi-front war.

Here’s the day in one glance before we walk the fronts in detail.

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⚡️Flash Brief: The Day in 90 Seconds or Less

• Gaza: IDF maps Beit Hanoun’s full tunnel city, kills Hamas naval chief and Rafah tunnel engineer; terrorists keep surfacing east of Yellow Line. See The War Today.

• Lebanon/Syria: Israel hits Hezbollah rebuild nodes as Beirut talks “negotiations”; Golan tour signals no Israeli pullback from Syrian buffer. See The War Today / Developments to Watch.

• Judea & Samaria: IDF/Shin Bet arrest over 60 suspects, shut weapons workshops and terror-financed vehicle network tied to recent attacks. See The War Today / Developments to Watch.

• October 7 Inquiry: Cabinet advances government-run probe as High Court freezes Levin’s Sde Teiman overseer again, deepening the judiciary–government knife fight. See Inside Israel.

• Draft & Politics: Netanyahu vows to enlist 17,000 Haredim in three years as polls show Likud rising and “no service, no ballot” sentiment hardens. See Inside Israel / Developments to Watch.

• Iran/Axis: Tehran cancels IAEA cooperation, boosts IRGC presence in Yemen, and quietly asks Riyadh to mediate with Washington. See Israel and the World / Developments to Watch.

• Lawfare & Info-War: New data punctures Gaza famine claims used in Hague cases while US Treasury sanctions more of Iran’s oil shadow fleet. See Israel and the World / Briefly Noted.

The full brief and analysis continue below.

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As the wars grind on, the draft crisis and the October 7 inquiry are finally dragging the old avoidance culture into daylight. You can’t fight Iran’s axis while letting 80,000 men sit out and leaving the pre-war gatekeepers in charge of the post-war investigation. The sections that follow take those strands and walk them theater by theater: tunnels and infiltrations in Gaza, mixed messages in Beirut and Damascus, Iran’s West Bank engine room, and a West that funds the PA with one hand while paying campus shock troops with the other.

The War Today

Hamas Regroups Beneath Gaza While Israel Hunts the Survivors