Israel Brief: Sunday, October 26

Borders humming, patience thinning — the ceasefire talks like peace while the IDF readies for the next round.

Shalom, friends.

The line between truce and trap is narrowing. Hamas has yet to return another single murdered hostage despite synchronized coordination with Egypt. Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum is now a test of credibility for everyone who sold this ceasefire as progress. In Kiryat Gat, Washington’s command center is no longer advisory—it’s operational, and every decision made there chips away at Israel’s autonomy. Rubio insists there’s “no Plan B,” which in practice means Plan A continues until Hamas finishes rebuilding.

North, the situation is louder than the headlines admit. Two Hezbollah field commanders are gone, Iranian officers are reportedly embedded across their missile sites, and Lebanese officials are warning civilians to brace for Israeli action in the Beqaa. The Barak MX batteries on Cyprus and the largest IDF drill since the war began are part of the same message: Israel will not wait to be surprised twice.

Inside the country, Netanyahu is juggling coalition mutiny from Shas, American vetoes on annexation, and a public that no longer distinguishes between political theater and security paralysis. The IDF probe into October 7 is due imminently, and every faction plans to weaponize the findings before the next election. Meanwhile, the reserve call-up is expanding quietly, because the General Staff is done pretending this ceasefire is sustainable.

The signal in all this noise: Israel is rehearsing the next war while Washington is still pretending the last one ended. The gap between those realities is where miscalculation lives.

The War Today

Ceasefire on Life Support: Foreign Control Rises as Hamas Stonewalls on Hostage Remains

Washington’s new US-led command center in Kiryat Gat is now the operational hub of the truce, with a multinational presence and Marco Rubio insisting “there is no Plan B” and appointing Steven Fagin to run the the hub day-to-day—signaling deeper foreign control of Gaza’s “day after.” Amid U.S. pressure, an Egyptian team entered Gaza to locate the bodies of 13 slain hostages, as President Trump warned Hamas to start returning remains within 48 hours or face action by “other countries.” On the ground, the IDF struck a Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative in Nuseirat for an imminent attack even as the ceasefire framework holds in name, and Hamas is reasserting internal control through intimidation and executions. Regionally, Erdogan demands sanctions and arms halts on Israel over alleged violations, Hamas and Fatah posture in Cairo around a “technocrat” panel for Gaza, and Gulf rivalry hardens—with Saudi/UAE conditioning reconstruction on Hamas’s disarmament while Qatar seeks rapid rebuilding that would preserve its leverage. Inside Egypt, 154 deported terror convicts freed under the deal are reportedly living in a five-star Cairo hotel—(it’s the Marriott Renaissance Cairo Mirage, if you’d like to make a reservation)—highlighting the moral hypocrisy of a truce that rewards killers while families still wait for remains. On Israel’s side of the line, Tzav 9 activists blocked aid convoys in protest for three hours at Kissufim, citing Hamas’s refusal to return bodies and the risk that “aid = rearmament,” a sentiment spreading among those that see a ceasefire entrenching Hamas rather than disarming it.

Assessment: The ceasefire is being sustained by American muscle—applied more to