Israel Brief: Thursday, March 12
Iran claims coordinated fire with Hezbollah for the first time. The Strait of Hormuz becomes even more contested. Israel warns Lebanon: act on your promises or lose your infrastructure.
Shalom, friends.
Day twelve of Roaring Lion, and the war just added an another declared front. Hezbollah named its campaign — “The Devouring Wind” — and Iran publicly claimed joint operations with its franchise for the first time since the war began. The Strait of Hormuz is now fully a combat zone with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are firing on commercial ships —and publicly admitting it. Inside Israel, the cabinet bought coalition stability with NIS 5 billion and a shelved draft bill while the Bank of Israel warned the math doesn’t hold.
⚡️Flash Brief: The Day in 90 Seconds or Less
Iran-Hezbollah joint fire: IRGC claims its first coordinated operation with Hezbollah — ballistic missiles and 150+ rockets at Israel simultaneously. All Iranian missiles intercepted; three lightly injured in the north. See The War Today.
CENTCOM passes 5,500 targets: Cooper confirms destruction of an entire class of Iranian warships and a ballistic missile factory hit overnight. Trump says “nothing left to target” — planning assumes at least two more weeks. See The War Today.
Taleghan nuclear site struck: Israel hit the AMAD-linked compound in Tehran, adding to the systematic campaign against Iran’s weapons program infrastructure. See The War Today.
Hormuz kill zone: Iran fires on a Thai cargo ship and claims it; explosive boats set two tankers ablaze in Iraqi waters, killing one crew member. IEA authorizes 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — the largest drawdown on record. See The War Today.
Hezbollah declares “The Devouring Wind”: 150+ rockets and 20 drones fired at northern Israel; IDF strikes 10 Dahieh targets in 30 minutes and threatens Lebanese national infrastructure if Beirut doesn’t act. See The War Today.
Budget passes, draft bill dies: Cabinet approves NIS 30 billion defense increase and NIS 5 billion in coalition funds — including NIS 1.27 billion for Torah institutions — while shelving the Haredi conscription bill “for unity.” Bank of Israel warns the fiscal trajectory is unsustainable. See Inside Israel.
Pardons department rejects Netanyahu request: Position paper finds the pardon does not meet criteria — no conviction, no admission of guilt. Heritage Minister Eliyahu says he’ll consult further before sending his recommendation to President Herzog. See Inside Israel.
Spain cuts ties; Lebanon wants to talk: Madrid permanently withdraws its ambassador. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s government seeks direct negotiations with Israel — and the UNSC condemns Iran’s Gulf strikes 13-0, with 135 co-sponsors. See Israel and the World.
Kiryat Shmona, eleven days underground: Mayor Stern tells Jerusalem to finish Hezbollah, not the war — and asks who is shooting if Hezbollah isn’t south of the Litani. See Inside Israel.
Below: the Assessment on why Hezbollah’s tactical reversion to guerrilla warfare changes the ground problem, what the pardons department’s rejection actually means for the political timeline, and Iran’s shoot-on-sight order that tells you more about the regime’s stability than the airstrike count.
The common thread is that every actor — Tehran, Hezbollah, Washington, Jerusalem, the Gulf states — is operating on the assumption that the current configuration of the war has weeks left, not months. What they do with that assumption diverges sharply.
The War Today
Iran and Hezbollah Claim Coordinated Strike as CENTCOM Passes 5,500 Targets and Israel Hits Another Nuclear Site
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced Wednesday night that its ballistic missile salvo against Israel was a “joint and integrated operation” with Hezbollah — the first time Tehran has publicly declared synchronized fire with its Lebanese franchise since the war began. The IRGC launched several ballistic missiles at central, northern, and southern Israel while Hezbollah fired drones and rockets at more than 50 targets across the country. All Iranian ballistic missiles were intercepted. Since midnight, Iran fired at least five separate salvos at Israel — at press time, none were reported as having produced casualties. CENTCOM confirmed it has struck more than 5,500 targets in Iran since the war started. They also confirmed the destruction of the last of four Soleimani-class warships — eliminating an entire class of Iranian naval vessels — and said heavy bombers hit a large ballistic missile manufacturing facility overnight. The IDF struck a site in Tehran used to develop advanced explosives and conduct experiments as part of the AMAD nuclear weapons program in the 2000s. The IDF noted Iran had begun rehabilitating the compound. Additional waves of Israeli airstrikes targeted IRGC command centers in the heart of Tehran. Internal Security and Basij force bases were struck simultaneously. Iranian media reported Israeli drone strikes on IRGC and Basij checkpoints across Tehran overnight, killing approximately 10 security personnel. Fars News Agency cited an unnamed official attributing the attacks to a “joint Mossad and pro-monarchist” operation. Iran’s chief of police, Ahmadreza Radan, declared that “anyone who takes to the streets at the request of the enemy will be treated as an enemy, not as a protester,” and ordered border guards to respond to any aggression with gunfire. The Intelligence Ministry announced the arrest of an armed group it said was linked to the U.S. and Israel, seizing firearms and four ready-to-explode homemade bombs. The IRGC arrested three additional individuals on charges of “disturbing public opinion” and cooperating with “enemy media.” President Trump told Axios, “There’s nothing left to target in Iran,” adding, “Any time I want it to end, it will end.” U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios that no decision has been made to stop fighting and that planning assumes at least two more weeks of strikes.
Assessment: The gap between Trump’s “nothing left to target” and his own military’s two-week planning window is the analytical crux of the Iran theater right now. Trump is building the narrative off-ramp — the rhetorical groundwork for declaring victory — while CENTCOM, the IDF, and the intelligence community are still executing the target list. The defense sources’ admission that regime change was never a military objective is operationally honest and politically necessary. It recalibrates expectations before the public asks why Mojtaba Khamenei is still alive and issuing orders. Iran’s internal crackdown — shoot-on-sight orders, mass arrests, “enemy media” charges — tells you the regime is worried about the one thing airstrikes alone cannot accomplish. Radan’s language is the language of a security apparatus that sees the streets as the real threat. Whether that fear is premature or prescient depends on what happens after the bombs stop falling. To that end, the Israeli drone strikes on IRGC and Basij checkpoints across Tehran overnight — killing approximately 10 security personnel and attributed by Fars News to a joint Mossad-monarchist operation — suggest the internal destabilization campaign is already running parallel to the air war.
Hormuz Becomes a Combat Zone as Iran Attacks Shipping and the World Opens Strategic Reserves
U.S. forces destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump claimed a total of 58 Iranian naval vessels sunk since the start of operations, including 31 minelayers. Separately, Iranian explosive-laden boats attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters — the Marshall Islands-flagged Safesea Vishnu and the Malta-flagged Zefyros — setting both ablaze and killing one crew member. The Thailand-flagged Mayuree Naree was struck by two projectiles while transiting the strait. Three crew members are missing and believed trapped in the engine room, with 20 evacuated to Oman. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for firing on the Mayuree Naree, the first direct engagement by Guards forces against a commercial vessel. The Japan-flagged container ship ONE Majesty sustained minor damage from a projectile 25 nautical miles off Ras Al Khaimah while at anchor, and the Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier Star Gwyneth was hit approximately 50 miles northwest of Dubai. Iranian drones struck Oman’s largest oil storage facilities at the Port of Salalah and injured four people near Dubai International Airport. Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed four drones in its eastern region; Kuwait shot down eight. Tanker traffic through the Strait dropped from roughly 50 per day before February 28 to zero after March 8. Crude oil reached $113.13 per barrel. U.S. gas prices rose more than 55 cents per gallon since March 1, reaching an average of $3.53. The International Energy Agency authorized the release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves across 32 member countries — the largest coordinated drawdown on record. A senior Iranian military official told Al Jazeera that “another strait” could face the same treatment as Hormuz.
Assessment: Iran is acknowledging it is directly attacking commercial, civilian vessels. The IEA’s 400-million-barrel release is the energy establishment’s panic button: the largest strategic drawdown in history tells you the market has already priced in weeks of disruption, and the IEA wants to buy time before prices force political decisions no one wants to make. Iran’s threat to target “all ports in the region” if its own are threatened is the regime’s version of mutually assured economic destruction — except Iran’s ports are already burning and the Gulf states’ are not. The Guards are lashing out precisely because their naval capability is being systematically eliminated. Their strategy now is to make the cost of transit high enough that the world pressures Washington to stop — which requires the world to feel the pain before the reserves run out. That is a race Iran is losing, but slowly enough to matter.
Hezbollah Declares “the Devouring Wind” as Israel Prepares a Broad Lebanon Campaign
Hezbollah announced a new phase of operations under the code name “Operation Al-Asf al-Ma’kul” — “The Devouring Wind” — and fired more than 150 rockets and approximately 20 drones toward northern Israel on Wednesday night, triggering sirens from Kiryat Shmona to Haifa. Several long-range rockets struck open areas; a home in the Lower Galilee village of Bi’ina took a direct hit. Three people sustained light injuries across the north. In central Israel, residents reported explosions during the combined Iran-Hezbollah barrage, with additional sirens sounding from renewed Lebanese and Iranian fire. The IDF responded with large-scale strikes across Lebanon — 10 terror structures in the Dahieh district of Beirut within 30 minutes, including Radwan Force headquarters, intelligence headquarters, and additional command centers. The IDF said it had struck more than 70 Dahieh targets since the start of the war with Iran. The IAF and ground forces dismantled dozens of ready-to-fire launchers and neutralized dozens of Hezbollah operatives preparing launches. The IDF’s Arabic-language spokesperson issued a third evacuation warning for southern Dahieh, telling residents not to return “until further notice.” In other words, closed for renovations. A senior Israeli security official told i24 News: “They have left us no choice — this campaign must expand into Lebanon. There is no one to talk to on the other side. We are considering strikes on Lebanese government infrastructure.” Chief of Staff Zamir ordered the Golani Brigade transferred from Gaza to the northern front and instructed the reinforcement of Northern Command. Troops from the 7th Armored Brigade under the 36th Division raided the Rab al-Thalathine area in southern Lebanon, eliminating Hezbollah operatives and locating weapons caches. The 810th “Mountains” Brigade located rocket launchers, holding positions, and weapons storage facilities in the Mount Dov area and destroyed them. IDF intelligence assesses that Hezbollah has decided a confrontation is in its interest — one that would force a full ceasefire and end Israel’s freedom of action in Lebanon. A senior Israeli official said: “Hezbollah wants to create a new equation in which Israeli enforcement policy in Lebanon stops entirely and we no longer strike. That will not happen. Therefore, the entire situation is heading toward serious escalation.” The IDF had prepared a major surprise operation against Hezbollah leadership and rocket infrastructure in recent months, but the plan was postponed twice by the political leadership. When the Iran war began, most aircraft, drones, and strike units were allocated to Iran — the more critical theater — and Israel lost the element of surprise. Hezbollah has shifted to guerrilla tactics: small units, no electronic communications, conserving anti-tank rockets.
Assessment: Hezbollah’s calculation is transparent: escalate in Lebanon to force Israel into a two-front resource dilemma, betting that the northern front’s cost in rockets and reservist call-ups will pressure Jerusalem to trade enforcement for quiet. The IDF’s response — Dahieh at scale, three divisions in the field, Golani moving north — says the bet is not working, but the twice-postponed surprise operation is the uncomfortable truth underneath: Israel’s political leadership deferred the Lebanon operation when it could have been executed on Israel’s terms, and now it is being fought on Hezbollah’s timetable with fewer available assets. The demand that the Lebanese Army act against Hezbollah — paired with the threat to strike national infrastructure — is a final warning. Lebanon’s government banned IRGC activity and committed to Hezbollah disarmament this week; now Israel is telling them to prove it wasn’t just a press release.
Inside Israel
Cabinet Approves NIS 30 Billion Defense Boost and NIS 5 Billion Coalition Sweetener in Wartime Budget
The cabinet approved an amended 2026 state budget late Tuesday night, adding approximately NIS 30 billion to the defense budget for Operation Roaring Lion and setting aside an additional NIS 13 billion in reserves for defense and civilian needs if the war is prolonged. The deficit target rose to 5.1% of GDP. Over NIS 5 billion in coalition funds were approved — including NIS 1.269 billion in 2026 for programs supporting Torah institutions — with hundreds of millions directed to Haredi institutions. Funds will be reallocated from other government ministries. The Bank of Israel issued a sharp response, warning that the damage to economic activity “could be even more severe” than the Finance Ministry’s estimate of a 0.5% GDP hit, and that the debt-to-GDP ratio may reach 70% in 2026 — up from roughly 60% on the eve of the war. The central bank called for reductions in coalition budgets and tax incentives, singling out the decision to raise tax brackets — which has a lasting impact on the debt ratio — as “inconsistent” with fiscal discipline. It also warned that the NIS 13 billion reserve must be retained strictly for security and civilian needs and “not be diverted to other purposes.” The vote was conducted via Zoom and passed unanimously. As we previously discussed, ahead of the vote, Netanyahu and Smotrich announced that the Haredi draft bill would be shelved during the war “for unity,” and Smotrich’s dairy reform was detached entirely from the budget, delaying its advancement. The budget has passed its first Knesset reading and must clear final votes before the end of March or the Knesset automatically dissolves. Opposition leader Lapid called the NIS 5 billion-plus allocation “the most corrupt kind of political bribery for the Haredi parties,” and MK Beliak told the Finance Committee that the government was allocating “large sums to draft evaders” during wartime.
Assessment: The coalition math is visible in every line item. Netanyahu bought Haredi votes on the budget by killing the draft bill and writing a NIS 1.269 billion check to Torah institutions — during a war in which the IDF has long been publicly warning about manpower shortages and the Golani Brigade is being shuffled between theaters. The IDF needs significantly more people. The Bank of Israel’s intervention is unusually blunt: it called the tax-bracket adjustment “inconsistent” with fiscal need and flagged the coalition reserve as a potential slush fund before it’s even been spent. They aren’t wrong. The 5.1% deficit and 70% debt-to-GDP ratio are not crisis numbers by global standards, but Israel entered this war as a small, open economy that maintained fiscal discipline precisely to absorb shocks like this one. That margin is being consumed — partly by the war, partly by coalition maintenance. The March 31 budget deadline is the sword hanging over all of it: miss it, and the Knesset dissolves. That deadline gives every coalition partner leverage and the prime minister exactly zero room to say no.
Pardons Department Says Netanyahu’s Request Does Not Meet Criteria
The Justice Ministry’s pardons department completed its legal position paper and determined that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pardon request does not meet the relevant conditions — primarily because his trial is ongoing, he has not been convicted, and he did not admit guilt or express remorse. The High Court has previously ruled that pre-conviction pardons are theoretically possible only when the petitioner admits to the underlying conduct, creating a de facto conviction. Heritage Minister Amichay Eliyahu — delegated by Justice Minister Levin to manage the process due to Levin’s potential conflict of interest — responded by asserting the request “merits consideration” and announced a series of “in-depth consultations” before forwarding his recommendation to President Herzog. The pardons department position paper, Eliyahu’s recommendation, and a separate paper from the president’s own legal adviser will all reach Herzog, who makes the final decision. The president accepts the pardons department’s recommendation in the large majority of cases. President Trump has placed heavy pressure on Herzog to grant the pardon. Herzog has said he will decide free of external influence.
Assessment: The pardons department did its job — and arrived at the predictable legal answer. Netanyahu has not been convicted and has not admitted guilt, which under existing precedent makes a pardon nearly impossible absent a legal reinterpretation no one in the bureaucracy will volunteer for. The real question has never been about that though—this is a political question. Eliyahu’s “in-depth consultations” are a transparent attempt to write a cover memo that reframes the request in terms the president can use. Herzog will receive three documents: one saying no, one saying maybe, and one from his own adviser. The external pressure — Trump’s, most visibly — is the variable no precedent accounts for. After five-plus years of trial without a conviction, the case has become a political instrument [which is precisely why it should end]. Whether it ends through pardon, acquittal, or exhaustion is now a question of presidential nerve, not prosecutorial merit.
Kiryat Shmona: Eleven Days Underground and a Promise That Did Not Hold
Kiryat Shmona Mayor Avichai Stern told 103FM that residents who chose to stay have been living underground for 11 days — “in shared shelters, with children” — and that he does not think they can hold on much longer. Stern appealed directly to decision-makers in Jerusalem: “Finish this as quickly as possible. Not to end the war, but to end Hezbollah.” He said the Home Front Command’s guidelines instructing businesses to open as usual are “a fiction” — businesses have not recovered from the previous war, and asking owners to risk themselves and their customers makes no economic or strategic sense. Stern confronted the gap between past promises and present reality. “They promised us that Hezbollah would not make it south of the Litani River, that the threat of invasion is gone, and that the threat of anti-tank missiles has been removed. In reality, we are seeing fierce battles here across the border, and we are seeing anti-tank missile hits. Who is shooting at us if Hezbollah is not south of the Litani River?” In Moshav Liman — less than two miles from the Lebanese border — families who returned after 14 months of displacement are under fire again. The moshav lost Staff Sgt. Or Demry z”l this week. Sigal Malachi, the moshav’s cultural coordinator, said children are so frightened some will not leave their family’s safe room — one mother had to beg her son to spend 15 minutes outside. Schools remain closed across the north. The northern public are calling for the establishment of a “Yellow Line” buffer zone extending to the Litani River under exclusive IDF control, modeled on the Gaza security perimeter.
Assessment: Stern’s question — “Who is shooting at us if Hezbollah is not south of the Litani?” — erodes public trust and yet is perfectly valid. The answer is that Hezbollah rebuilt faster than anyone was willing to admit publicly. And the ceasefire enforcement that was supposed to prevent exactly this scenario did not deliver. The residents of Kiryat Shmona and Moshav Liman have now been displaced twice, lost soldiers from their own communities, and are being told to reopen businesses while sleeping in shelters. The Home Front Command’s guidelines are a fiscal calculation dressed as operational guidance — the Finance Ministry’s NIS 5 billion weekly savings number drives the reopening, not the threat assessment. The Yellow Line proposal is the northern communities’ way of saying: we no longer trust diplomatic arrangements to protect us. They watched UNIFIL fail, watched Resolution 1701 fail, and watched the ceasefire fail. They still trust in the operational capability of the IDF, though. Let’s hope Jerusalem has the decency not to let them down.
Israel and the World
Spain Cuts Ties as Lebanon and Gulf States Move Toward Israel
In a move of even more “virtue signaling,” Spain permanently withdrew its ambassador to Israel on Wednesday — terminating Ambassador Ana Maria Salomon Perez’s posting rather than merely recalling her for consultations — leaving its Tel Aviv embassy under a chargé d’affaires for the foreseeable future. The move follows Spain’s September ban on weapons-transit aircraft and ships, Foreign Minister Sa’ar’s accusation that Madrid was leading “a hostile, anti-Israel line,” and Spain’s May 2024 recognition of a Palestinian state. Israel recalled its own ambassador from Madrid in 2024. Both embassies now operate at reduced levels. Sa’ar accused Spain of “standing with tyrants” for opposing the war against Iran. President Trump told reporters: “The Spanish side is not cooperating with us at all, and Spain has been terrible. We might stop doing business with them.” In the opposite direction, Lebanon’s civilian government now wants to negotiate with Israel directly — a shift driven by Hezbollah’s diminished capacity and the regime’s severance from Iranian direction. Lebanese authorities have outlawed Hezbollah military activity, committed to full disarmament, and announced that IRGC operatives would be detained and Iranian nationals will no longer receive visa-free entry. Though, the effect of those moves seems minimal for now. Civilians evacuated from southern Lebanon are openly criticizing Hezbollah. Israel and CENTCOM are cooperating closely with Gulf states to track and counter Iranian threats, and a Bahraini observer said that normalization with Israel could accelerate — “especially as destabilizing players disappear.”
Assessment: Two realities occupying the same week. Spain — whose government has made opposing Israel the centerpiece of its foreign policy since October 2023 (or the 1490s? hm.) — formalized what was already operationally true. There is no diplomatic relationship, just a mailbox in Tel Aviv. The Trump-Sa’ar alignment against Madrid raises the cost of Spain’s posture but is unlikely to reverse it. Sanchez has made this a domestic identity issue, not a strategic one. Blaming the Jews… a real novel move there, Sanchez. The Lebanon story is the one that matters. Direct negotiations between Jerusalem and Beirut — even at the level of intent — would have been unthinkable 18 months ago. Hezbollah’s degradation created the political space; Iran’s inability to resupply or direct its franchise created the opportunity. Whether Lebanon’s government can translate declared intent into enforceable action — IRGC arrests, Hezbollah disarmament, actual sovereignty — is the test.
Gulf States Lead Historic UNSC Resolution Condemning Iran’s Attacks, 13-0
The United Nations Security Council voted 13-0 on Wednesday — with Russia and China abstaining — to condemn Iran’s strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan since the outbreak of war. The Bahrain-drafted, Gulf Cooperation Council-backed resolution won co-sponsorship from 135 UN member states, the highest number in Security Council history. The resolution condemned Iran’s attacks on “residential areas” and “civilian objects,” demanded an immediate cessation of strikes, and condemned threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz called the attacks on civilian infrastructure “disgusting” and dismissed the suggestion that the GCC resolution had been manipulated by one or two countries as “laughable.” Russia’s alternative resolution — which condemned “the violence” without naming any party — received four votes and failed. Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said discussing attacks “in isolation of the root causes” — meaning the U.S.-Israel operation — was “impossible.” Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon said the regime is “firing on the countries of the region out of desperation.”
Assessment: Thirteen-to-zero at the Security Council with Russia and China unable to do more than abstain is the diplomatic equivalent of Iran standing alone in the room. Moscow tried to launder the vote into a generic anti-violence resolution and couldn’t find five supporters. Beijing chose silence over solidarity. The 135-country co-sponsorship is a number designed to be cited in every future diplomatic filing — and it will be. The GCC drafted this resolution to establish a legal and political record: Iran attacked sovereign Arab states that explicitly declared neutrality, struck civilian areas, and killed and injured citizens of dozens of countries. That record is the foundation for whatever comes next — expanded sanctions, reparations claims, or the regional defense architecture that is already being built in real time.
Briefly Noted
Frontline & Security
Israel National News: The FBI alerted California law enforcement to intelligence that Iran had considered launching drones from a vessel off the U.S. West Coast in the event of American military strikes — a bulletin distributed in late February with no specifics on timing, targets, or personnel. Iran maintains a presence in Mexico and access to drone technology.
JNS: A cyberattack on Israeli railway station screens Wednesday night displayed fake Hebrew-language warnings of incoming Iranian missiles, telling passengers to evacuate the “subway” immediately. Israel Railways confirmed the breached advertisement screens are not connected to critical infrastructure; the trains — running at reduced wartime capacity — were unaffected.
Times of Israel: Norwegian police arrested three brothers — Norwegian citizens of Iraqi origin, all in their 20s — for Sunday’s IED bombing at the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, which damaged the consular entrance but caused no injuries. Europe’s Iran-linked threat environment just gained another data point.
Diplomacy & Geopolitics
JNS: Palestinian Authority TV claimed Israel’s wartime ban on gatherings over 50 people was designed to enable an extremist Jewish Passover sacrifice at Al-Aqsa — a fabrication Palestinian Media Watch called “the worst terror incitement.” The PA dressed it up as a “political and ideological process seeking to change the religious, historical and legal reality” of the Temple Mount — a recycled incitement formula engineered to trigger violence, deployed on schedule for Ramadan.
Domestic & Law
Israel National News: COGAT ordered testing of up to 100% of Palestinian Authority agricultural produce entering Israel after inspections found 50% of cucumbers, 49% of tomatoes, and 66% of hot peppers contaminated with prohibited pesticides — including organophosphate neurotoxins. The produce had been reaching Israeli markets before lab results returned; MK Sohn Har-Melekh said the system “preferred the livelihood of our enemies over the health of Israel’s citizens.”
Jewish Chronicle: Haredi groups in Britain are preparing a legal challenge to the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill, which would require unregistered yeshivot — an estimated 1,500-plus boys aged 13–16 in Stamford Hill receiving little secular education — to register with the Department for Education and undergo Ofsted inspections. The British Rabbinical Union called the bill “disproportionate and unlawful interference” with religious parenting rights [though the Torah itself expects a man to learn a trade alongside learning Torah — not one at the expense of the other].
Economy, Tech & Infrastructure
Globes: Google completed its $32 billion acquisition of Israeli cybersecurity firm Wiz — the largest-ever acquisition of an Israeli company — with each of the four founders receiving approximately $2.2 billion after tax. The state stands to collect roughly NIS 10 billion in capital gains by mid-April. Hundreds of Israeli employees become millionaires, several dozen exceeding $100 million.
Jerusalem Post: The U.S. Justice Department is investigating whether Iran used the Binance cryptocurrency exchange to evade sanctions, following an internal Binance probe that identified more than $1 billion in flows connected to networks funding Iran-backed terror groups.
Ynet: Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei financed the purchase of luxury London properties — a mansion and 12 houses on “Billionaires’ Row” — with a £36 million loan from a company ultimately owned by Israeli-born British businessmen Sol and Eddie Zakay of the Topland Group, originally from Ramat Gan. The supreme leader of the regime that wants Israel erased from the map, bankrolled in part by Israelis [good grief].
Culture, Religion & Society
JNS: The Oscar-nominated “Voice of Hind Rajab” — set entirely in Ramallah, never showing Gaza, Israeli soldiers, Hamas, or the battlefield conditions in which the child died — erases every contested fact about the incident while rendering Israelis as a faceless, voiceless force of pure evil. Two of five films on the Best International Feature shortlist center on Palestinians. Independent analysis has documented multiple unresolved inconsistencies — shifting accounts, omitted communications, contested forensics — that the film and its reviewers decline to address.
Algemeiner: The 25th Sydney Biennale — taxpayer-funded, Qatar-sponsored, and directed by Emirati princess Hoor Al-Qasimi [whose father called Zionism “a cancerous growth”] — opens Saturday with more than half of 83 artists being Arab or Muslim and zero Israelis. One participant compared Jewish philanthropists to Nazis by name. Another wants “Zionists out of our cultural spaces.” The festival’s “zero tolerance for racism” pledge does not, apparently, apply.
HonestReporting: CNN framed two ISIS-inspired suspects who threw explosive devices at a New York rally as “teenagers” whose “normal day” was “drastically changed” — then deleted the post and issued corrections only after public backlash forced their hand. Anchor Abby Phillip also misreported that the bombs targeted Mayor Mamdani rather than his critics — the red-green alliance’s media arm doing what it does best, and a preview of the editorial machinery dissected in tomorrow’s Long Brief, The Machinery of Selective Outrage (7:30 a.m. Eastern).
Israel National News: NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani — whose wife liked posts celebrating Oct. 7 and denying the rape of Israeli women, and who hosted Hamas cheerleaders at Gracie Mansion during Ramadan — spent the week deflecting blame for the Islamist bomb attack outside his residence onto the peaceful protesters who were its intended targets. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, himself the target of a firebombing last Passover, called Mamdani to sympathize — a measure of how effectively the victimhood narrative launders itself even to those who should know better.
Developments to Watch
Regional Axis (Iran, Houthis, Militias)
Iran declares “continuous strikes” policy — The Iranian General Staff announced the end of its mutual-strikes doctrine and pledged continuous fire from this point forward. The IRGC Aerospace Forces warned of “new surprises.” Rhetoric has outpaced capability for days, however.
Radan’s shoot-on-sight order — Iran’s chief of police declared that anyone taking to the streets “at the request of the enemy” will be treated as an enemy combatant, not a protester, and ordered border guards to fire on any aggression. The regime is activating its security apparatus against the internal threat it fears more than the bombs.
Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly injured — The New York Times and Israeli officials confirmed the new Supreme Leader was hurt — possibly in the legs — on February 28. The extent remains unclear. A wounded leader whose father was just killed, issuing orders from an unknown location, while the Assembly of Experts has still not properly formalized his succession — fragility compounding fragility.
Kurdish fighters say they are inside Iran — Kurdish resistance figures are claiming some fighters are already inside the Islamic Republic and “ready to go into action,” with a fighter near the border saying the regime “has never been weaker.”
Houthi reserve — no change, still watching — No new reporting on Houthi activation, but Israeli intelligence’s assessment that the Houthis are using restraint to lull Israel remains operative. Combat divisions remain mobilized along borders.
Iran targets Oman energy infrastructure — Iranian drones struck Oman’s largest oil storage facilities at the Port of Salalah. Oman has maintained studied neutrality throughout the conflict. Hitting Muscat’s oil infrastructure — alongside the UAE airport strike and Saudi drone intercepts — eliminates the last pretense that Iran is targeting only U.S. and Israeli interests.
Northern Front (Lebanon / Syria)
Israel threatens Lebanese national infrastructure — Israel told Beirut that if the Lebanese Army does not act against Hezbollah, strikes on national infrastructure will follow. This moves the threat from Hezbollah assets to state assets — power grids, bridges, ports. Lebanon’s government has 48 hours of good intentions and no enforcement mechanism. LIKELY TO ESCALATE
Home Front & Politics
Budget deadline: March 31 — The amended budget passed cabinet but must clear final Knesset votes by month’s end or trigger automatic dissolution. The Haredi draft bill is shelved, the dairy reform detached, and the coalition’s NIS 5 billion sweetener is baked in — but any partner who calculates the war’s political arc differently than Netanyahu can pull the plug with a single no vote.
Iran claimed a coordinated attack with Hezbollah, fired on a cargo ship and said so publicly, threatened every port in the region, and ordered its police to shoot protesters on sight. Seems like the behavior of a healthy, coherent government. The IEA opened the largest strategic reserve drawdown in history because the market agrees. Israel now faces two declared fronts, a budget held together by coalition arithmetic, and a northern population that has been promised a different reality three times and received the same one. Whether Hezbollah’s “Devouring Wind” meets an Israeli ground campaign or another deferred decision — that question will answer itself in days.
Shabbat shalom! Oh, for the days when Shabbat shalom! will come with some actual peace.
— Uri Zehavi · Intelligence Editor
With Modi Zehavi · Data + Research Analyst
P.S. Tomorrow at 7:30 a.m. Eastern: The Machinery of Selective Outrage — why the organizations that shut down universities over Gaza went silent while Iran massacred tens of thousands, then reactivated to defend the regime from consequences. Paid subscribers get the full story. Give a gift subscription if someone you know needs to know how the red-green alliance works.
Give Israel Brief to the person still waiting for the Security Council to do something — and who missed that it just did, 13-0, with 135 co-sponsors and zero opposition.