Shalom, friends.
Washington has moved from handshakes to hardware, standing up a multinational hub in Kiryat Gat to verify the truce, hunt for our fallen, and block reconstruction cash from flowing to Hamas. The tempo is deliberate: Vance wheels up, Rubio wheels in, CENTCOM sketches the stabilization force, and a dedicated team forms to bring every body home. Israel set the red lines early — no Turkish or Qatari boots — and will vet every name on every badge.
North, the “quiet” is cosmetic. Precision strikes continue, including the kill of a Radwan squad commander near Ein Qana, while Hezbollah reloads faster than the Lebanese Army disarms. Riyadh just froze a donors’ conference for Lebanon’s military, calling it ineffective. In plain language: Beirut still won’t take the guns; Israel will keep removing the hands that hold them.
Inside the Knesset, sovereignty took an early, narrow vote for Ma’ale Adumim and a wider debate for all of Judea and Samaria. These are preliminary readings, but they surface the strategic reality: Israelis see the high ground as home ground, not a bargaining chip, and the Americans are already signaling “not now.” Expect pressure and persistence.
Abroad, the World Court delivered a familiar advisory — more aid and work with UNRWA — while ignoring the terrorist rot documented in UNRWA. Meanwhile, a plausible bright spot: talk of Azerbaijan in a stabilization force. A secular, Muslim-majority partner that already shares security interests and energy links with Israel makes enforcement more legitimate and less Western-uniform dependent.
It’s out. Finally. Rooted Truth: Israel’s Case Against the Deniers just launched — my unapologetic defense of Israel’s legitimacy, written for people who prefer evidence to hashtags. It’s history, law, and a touch of righteous stubbornness bound between covers. Your friends have opinions. Now you’ll have receipts. Get the book →
The War Today
US officials arrive for ‘Bibi-sitting’ as Washington tightens ceasefire oversight of Israel
Washington is hard-wiring enforcement: a ~200-troop multinational hub in Kiryat Gat to verify the truce, coordinate recovery of hostages’ remains, vet a Gaza technocratic authority and keep reconstruction money out of Hamas hands. Back-to-back visits by VP J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with CENTCOM planners, advanced a stabilization force; Israel barred Turkish or Qatari troops and will vet all personnel. The U.S. is courting Saudi and Gulf funding, while bereaved families pressed to hold off “Phase 2” until every body is returned; Vance said some remains are deep underground and will take time to locate. CENTCOM’s concept includes a dedicated multinational task unit to find the fallen.
Bottom Line: The American train isn’t slowing. If this tempo secures the fallen, constrains Hamas, and keeps foreign spoilers out of Gaza, Israelis will grit their teeth and accept the protectorate optics; if it drifts into process over outcome, expect friction—and corrective action.
Read more at Ynet →
Nearly a year after truce, women in south Lebanon say war never ended
Tens of thousands of Lebanese remain displaced from the south nearly a year after a November 2024 truce meant to calm the frontier. Israeli precision strikes continue as Hezbollah re-embeds along the border. Reconstruction is frozen, with donors conditioning funds on Hezbollah’s disarmament.
Why It Matters: The northern front never truly went quiet—and Hezbollah’s reach now extends far beyond it. Lebanon’s own prime minister has called on the group to disarm and act as a political party, a rare admission of national fatigue with its state-within-a-state. Meanwhile, a U.S. Senate panel traced Hezbollah’s drug and money-laundering network across Latin America, warning of operatives active inside the United States. The Iran-Hezbollah axis isn’t a border problem; it’s a global one. Until the group is forced north of the Litani, stripped of its arsenal, and denied its foreign revenue streams, civilians won’t return safely—and Israel won’t ease deterrence.
Read more at Jerusalem Post →
Thousands of Arabs slip into Israel from PA monthly, officials warn
Security officials estimate some 40,000 Palestinian Authority residents breach the security line into Israel every month through gaps in the barrier and thin surveillance. Most cross for work, but cases like the 122 suspects stopped near Lachish highlight how the same holes can be used for reconnaissance or terror. Local councils blasted a manpower shortfall and unsealed breaches; the IDF and Border Police said they made the arrests.
Bottom Line: Secure the barriers, prosecute Israeli facilitators, surge patrols and sensors—treat illegal crossings as a live-security vector, not a labor shortcut. October 7 taught the cost of ignoring gaps—we don’t need another lesson.
Read more at JNS →
Inside Israel
Lacking majority, coalition pulls bills from Knesset agenda, freezing legislation
Days into the winter session, the coalition yanked members’ bills rather than risk defeat as ultra-Orthodox parties boycott votes over the stalled draft-exemption law. With only 60 seats, the government can’t pass routine measures while opposition initiatives—including a sovereignty bid—stay on the docket. The paralysis coincides with Otzma Yehudit’s threat to bolt if the death-penalty-for-terror bill doesn’t advance.
Why It Matters: This is what happens when the draft crisis meets a coalition with a razor-thin “majority.” Israel needs a real service framework—quotas, timelines, and sanctions, plus tracks that actually manage to accommodate Haredi needs. Until that’s built, governance gridlocks while soldiers shoulder the burden.
Read more at Times of Israel →
Knesset passes Judea, Samaria sovereignty bills in preliminary reading
Two opposition bills advancing Israeli sovereignty passed a first hurdle: Avigdor Liberman’s to annex Ma’ale Adumim and Avi Maoz’s broader measure for all of Judea and Samaria. Likud ministers walked out on the prime minister’s orders, citing timing and opposition sponsors, while Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit backed both. The bills now move to committee for further readings.
Bottom Line: For more than thirty years Israel offered concessions and got terror in return. “Jew” comes from “Judea”; control of that high ground protects the coastal plain and Ben-Gurion Airport. The U.S. has already pushed back—Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president “wouldn’t support” sovereignty moves right now—so expect pressure even before second and third readings. International politics aside, these votes reflect a solid majority that sees permanence and security—not bargaining chips—in the heartland.
Read more at JNS →
Israel and the World
World Court rejects Israel’s claims UNRWA tied to Hamas, orders to permit UN aid into Gaza
The International Court of Justice issued a nonbinding advisory opinion saying Israel must ensure Gaza civilians’ basic needs and “agree to and facilitate” UN relief operations, including UNRWA. The court ruled Israel failed to prove systemic Hamas infiltration of the agency—though nine UNRWA staff were dismissed for joining the October 7 massacre—and criticized prior aid restrictions. Jerusalem rejected the findings and reiterated its evidence of UNRWA’s terror ties; the opinion has no enforcement power but political weight.
Why It Matters: This lands amid a U.S.-brokered ceasefire allowing 600 aid trucks daily and Israel’s long-standing proof that UNRWA shelters Hamas. Lawfare will intensify: courts opine, adversaries amplify, and Israel still foots the bill. Until UN agencies police themselves, Israel’s skepticism remains policy, not obstinacy.
Read more at Ynet →
Experts: Azerbaijan’s role in Gaza stabilization force could strengthen Israel
Foreign reports suggest Azerbaijan could join a multinational stabilization force in Gaza alongside other Muslim-majority partners. Analysts say Baku’s tight security ties with Jerusalem, battlefield experience, and shared interest in deterring Iran’s proxies make it a credible contributor. Economically, Azerbaijan’s oil to Israel—and SOCAR’s stake in the Tamar gas field—deepen a strategic umbilical between energy, security, and diplomacy.
Assessment: A secular, Muslim-majority ally on the ground blunts the tired “occupation” narrative and reduces dependence on Western uniforms. If the force gets a clear mandate and real rules of engagement, Azerbaijan’s presence could legitimize enforcement in the eyes of the international diplomatic corps.
Read more at Israel National News →
Top UAE adviser calls for compromise to settle Israel-Palestinian conflict
UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash urged a “divided land” solution—security guarantees for Israel and a viable state for “Palestinians”—framing the Gaza ceasefire as an opening to reset diplomacy. He flagged annexation in Judea and Samaria as a UAE red line even as Abu Dhabi touts its normalization and reconstruction roles. The subtext: disarm Hamas, unlock Gulf money, and expand the Abraham Accords.
Assessment: Two-state talk is dead inside Israel for the foreseeable future; October 7 sealed it. Real compromise starts with Hamas disarmed and Israeli security intact. Gulf capitals can help—by cutting Islamist oxygen and backing governance that rewards order, not terror.
Read more at Times of Israel →
Briefly Noted
Defense and Strategy
Globes: Germany’s €2b Spike deal shows European militaries keep choosing Israeli missile brains—even when politics keeps Israeli firms out of some expos. Read more →
Jerusalem Post: Shield AI unveiled the X-BAT, a long-range, VTOL, AI-enabled autonomous combat jet designed to launch without runways and team with manned aircraft—another sign Western airpower is shifting toward runway-independent, attritable platforms that complicate enemy targeting. Read more →
Israel National News: The US sanctioned Rosneft, Lukoil, and dozens of subsidiaries, urging a Ukraine ceasefire and pressing allies to align against Putin’s oil cashflow. Read more →
Governance and Economy
Jerusalem Post: The Knesset’s State Control Committee voted 6–4 against forming a State Commission of Inquiry into the October 7 failures; the chair vowed a revote and the High Court is pressing for a government timeline. Read more →
Israel National News: At a Ministry of Aliyah conference, venture capitalist Michael Eisenberg called for a “million Olim” drive, soon followed by a government-business charter pledging pre-arrival hiring, mentoring, and immigrant advocacy across major firms—pushing for Aliyah as national growth policy, not ceremony. Read more →
Ynet: Three months after pledging over NIS 1 billion for northern rehabilitation, the government has yet to transfer funds, leaving towns short on housing and security projects; officials blame ministry disputes as border communities wait. Read more →
Diplomacy and Lawfare
JNS: A report says Western-funded aid NGOs operating in Gaza grew cozy with Hamas, citing documents showing hospital co-location and access controls, and urges donor governments to demand transparency and cut support where groups amplify Hamas narratives. Read more →
Times of Israel: Twelve UN staff detained by Iran-backed Houthis in Sanaa were allowed to leave; the UN says 53 employees remain “arbitrarily detained” amid farcical spying claims. Read more →
Times of Israel: The IOC told federations not to stage events in Indonesia and froze any Olympic hosting talks after Jakarta barred Israeli gymnasts, citing core non-discrimination rules. Read more →
Antisemitism and Culture
JNS: Watchdog StopAntisemitism says 400 of 1,000 profiled antisemites have been fired for IHRA-defined Jew-hatred; many employers act only after public pressure. Read more →
Israel National News: Malmö cinemas refused to host a Jewish Film Festival and a pro-Israel concert was canceled in Brussels—another snapshot of a “multicultural” Europe where Jewish culture is increasingly unwelcome. Read more →
The Jewish Chronicle: Birmingham’s ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv away fans rewarded Islamist intimidation over equal protection, an op-ed argues; Britain needs to confront Islamist extremism, not appease it. Read more →
Developments to Watch
Dividing Gaza by control lines – The U.S. and Israel are weighing a temporary split of Gaza into zones under Israeli versus Hamas control, with reconstruction restricted to the Israeli-controlled areas until Hamas is disarmed and removed. That would harden “facts on the ground” while keeping aid out of Hamas hands—if discipline holds. LIKELY TO ESCALATE
Ein Qana targeted killing – The IAF eliminated Issa Ahmad Karbala, a Radwan squad commander, near Ein Qana in south Lebanon, keeping pressure on Hezbollah’s invasion cadre during the “truce.” Beirut still can’t enforce its own decisions; Israel continues to do it for them. LIKELY TO ESCALATE
Riyadh freezes Lebanese Army aid – Saudi Arabia declined to fund the Lebanese Army, calling it ineffective against Hezbollah and scrapping a Paris conference to rally support. No Gulf money means fewer excuses for Beirut—and fewer buffers for Hezbollah.
Bab al-Mandab seizure – Yemen’s recognized government intercepted a smuggling ship loaded with Russian ATGMs and drone parts bound for the Houthis. The Iran-Houthi pipeline keeps trying; every seizure buys shipping lanes another day.
Houthi defense chief fading – The Houthi defense minister hit in an Israeli strike weeks ago is reportedly in rapidly deteriorating condition. That’s deterrence with receipts—and a reminder the long arm reaches past Gaza.
Samaria roll-up after Evyatar – Following Saturday’s attempted shooting near Evyatar, IDF units raided two Fatah-heavy villages, arrested suspects, and seized weapons in the hide site. Short, sharp raids deny terror cells recovery time.
122 stopped near Lachish – Border Police and the IDF nabbed 122 illegal crossers from the Hebron area near Lachish; councils blasted fence gaps and thin patrols. Treat “labor” breaches as live security vectors until the seams are sealed.
Oil-slick road sabotage – An oil spill on the Husan bypass toward Beitar and Tzur Hadassah caused a chain crash; road remains hazardous. Low-tech sabotage can be lethal on commuter arteries; patrol patterns and cameras need to adjust.
Stones on Jerusalemlem-Gush Etzion road – “Palestinian” stone-throwing near Al-Khader hit cars again on the Jerusalem corridor. Routine violence isn’t routine when it kills; hold the hotspot, not just clear it.
Here’s the bottom line. Enforcement is working because it exists. The IDF keeps pressure on Hezbollah while Beirut talks in the conditional tense. At home, sovereignty votes tell you where the public is; foreign pushback tells you the bill comes due early. In the courts, “advisory opinions” advise; they don’t command.
Until next time, we’ll keep watching the line, the lawfare, and the borders. You keep your resolve.
— Uri Zehavi · Intelligence Editor
With Modi Zehavi · Data + Research Analyst
🔒 Tip? Send it securely via signal: (@Uri.30) or proton ([email protected]).