Israel Brief: Thursday, October 9

Peace Inked, Doubt Unshaken: Hostages, Missiles, and the Price of Illusions

Good morning, friends.

After two years of war, Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of the Trump peace deal. The hostages are set to return, the troops are preparing to pull back, and the world is already writing headlines about “the end of the Gaza war.” But those who’ve lived through Israel’s history know that peace announcements are not peace itself.

Today’s briefing tracks both halves of that story: the fragile optimism in Sharm el-Sheikh and the harder truths rising on every front — Iran lifting missile limits, Houthi drones pressing Eilat, Hezbollah rebuilding under the rubble, and Hamas preparing its next move even as it negotiates. The deal may end one war, but it will test whether Israel — and the West — have learned how to hold peace without surrendering vigilance.

A quick personal note: I just published a new book, Holiday From History: The West’s Delusion of Peace and the Return of War. If you value this work, checking out the book is one of the best ways to support what we do here. Thank you! Order your copy today →

The War Today

Israel and Hamas agree to first phase of Trump peace deal aimed at ending Gaza war

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of his Gaza peace plan, committing to release all hostages and begin an Israeli troop withdrawal to agreed positions. Mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey brokered the deal after marathon talks in Sharm el-Sheikh, with 20 hostages expected to be freed in the first stage and five crossings opened for humanitarian aid. Trump called it “a great day for peace,” though Israeli officials warned that Hamas could still renege on the agreement at the last moment. Read more →

How will the newly agreed-upon Gaza deal take shape over coming days? – explainer

Israel’s cabinet is set to ratify the first stage of the Trump-brokered Gaza ceasefire on Thursday, authorizing a 72-hour countdown for Hamas to release all surviving hostages “in one fell swoop.” The IDF will then withdraw to the so-called “yellow line,” leaving Israel in control of roughly 53% of the Strip, while Trump plans to arrive Sunday and may address the Knesset. The deal also includes the release of 1,700 Gaza detainees and 250 prisoners serving life terms—excluding Hamas’s Nukhba killers and senior terror commanders—as part of the exchange. Read more →

Hamas attempts raid on army post in Gaza City outskirts; IDF says 3 gunmen killed

Five Hamas operatives surfaced from a tunnel near the Netzarim Corridor and moved toward an IDF encampment; Golani scouts, backed by the air force, killed three while two fled back underground. The army reported no Israeli casualties and launched a sweep for the fugitives, even as a separate expert probe was opened into a grenade accident that seriously wounded two reservists in Khan Younis the previous day. Read more →