Israel Brief: Thursday, October 9
Peace Inked, Doubt Unshaken: Hostages, Missiles, and the Price of Illusions
After two years of war, Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of the Trump peace deal. The hostages are set to return, the troops are preparing to pull back, and the world is already writing headlines about “the end of the Gaza war.” But those who’ve lived through Israel’s history know that peace announcements are not peace itself.
Today’s briefing tracks both halves of that story: the fragile optimism in Sharm el-Sheikh and the harder truths rising on every front — Iran lifting missile limits, Houthi drones pressing Eilat, Hezbollah rebuilding under the rubble, and Hamas preparing its next move even as it negotiates. The deal may end one war, but it will test whether Israel — and the West — have learned how to hold peace without surrendering vigilance.
A quick personal note: I just published a new book, Holiday From History: The West’s Delusion of Peace and the Return of War. If you value this work, checking out the book is one of the best ways to support what we do here. Thank you! Order your copy today →
The headlines already say the Gaza war is over. Today's Israel Brief says read more carefully. Phase one of the Trump deal is signed and the hostages are set to come home — and in the same 48 hours Iran lifted its missile caps, Houthi drones pressed Eilat, and Israel seized an Iranian arms shipment bound for Judea and Samaria. The full edition tracks both halves: the fragile optimism in Sharm el-Sheikh and the harder truths rising on every front.
The story of this ceasefire will not be written in Cairo, but in what happens next.
The Israel Brief is the Mitzpe Institute's read on Israel and the region — most mornings, Sunday through Thursday. More at mitzpe.org.