Israel Brief: Tuesday, December 9
Phase II Scripts Get Softer, Borders and Barriers Get Harder
Shalom, friends.
Quick note before we dive in: today’s Brief is going out a bit earlier than usual — I’m grabbing a flight back to Israel and wanted this on your desk before boarding, not after landing. Boarding shortly, currently enjoying a moment in a sun-glared corner of a lounge to get this out to you. I’m reminded of a time a few months ago when I was (terrified) in a lounge in Beirut’s airport counting the seconds until we could leave—this is more pleasant, though much of the happenings below are anything but.
Hamas is back on the streets in Gaza, its police and checkpoints restored, while its leaders talk about “freezing” weapons and EU planners design an “International Stabilization Force” that pointedly avoids disarming anyone. To the north, the IDF is still hitting Radwan infrastructure as Lebanon’s own speaker begs Tehran for a fatwa on Hezbollah’s rockets and Brussels dreams of training Lebanese police to free the army’s hands. At home, Israel has started pouring concrete into a 310-mile Jordan barrier, kept 280,000 reservists on emergency footing, and is trying to pass a draft law with Haredi protests blocking highways and Shas holding the budget hostage—in other words the adult are working while others throw tantrums. In Europe, intelligence services now warn Hamas is gearing up for external operations against Jewish and Israeli targets, even as a Gaza butcher wanders a Belgian Christmas market and “reporters” with Hamas ranks are mourned at Washington galas.
Here’s the situation before we get on the plane.
⚡️Flash Brief: The Day in 90 Seconds or Less
Gaza: Hamas restores police and checkpoints, talks about “storing” weapons while IDF strikes an imminent-threat cell in Deir al-Balah. See The War Today.
Hostages & Phase II: Hamas and Red Cross resume searches for Ran Gvili’s body as talk grows of starting Phase B before Christmas. See The War Today & Developments to Watch.
North: IDF hits Radwan training sites; Nabih Berri asks Iran to bless handing rockets to LAF amid Shia anger. See The War Today & Developments to Watch.
Iran / Axis: Western intel expects Hamas terror attempts in Europe within six months, using pre-positioned cells and crime networks. See Developments to Watch & Israel and the World.
Inside Israel: Construction begins on a 310-mile Jordan barrier; emergency Order 8 for 280,000 reservists extended; Katz and Zamir cut a partial appointments deal. See Inside Israel.
Politics & law: State Comptroller clashes with ex-Shin Bet “Oscar” over Oct 7 audit; Haredi draft protests block Highway 4 as Shas threatens the budget. See Inside Israel.
Diplomacy & info-war: US–Israel–Qatar meet in New York; Trump–Netanyahu set for Mar-a-Lago December 29; UNRWA raid in Jerusalem sparks UN outrage while Hamas terrorists are honored as “reporters” in Washington. See Israel and the World & Briefly Noted.
The gap between language and reality is getting wider by the day. Hamas offers to put its guns in the closet, not in the garbage heap, while the same capitals that spent twenty years ignoring its tunnels now churn out PowerPoints about peacekeeping forces that will “monitor” a ceasefire they can’t enforce. The IDF’s answer is refreshingly non-theoretical: hit Radwan’s real compounds, kill operatives planning attacks, lock-down the Yellow Line and start sealing the Jordan frontier with steel and Nahal outposts, not wishful thinking. Inside the country, you can feel a state working towards lasting security… building borders, keeping reserve capacity, fighting over who commands the state sword — while the legal system and parts of the intelligence guild and some of the politicos still look for reasons not to sit under the same light as everyone else after October 7.