Israel Brief: Tuesday, February 24
Tehran buys days. Beijing buys Iran's survival. Hamas buys uniforms.
Shalom, friends.
The Trump ultimatum expires this week, and the question of whether it was a countdown or a negotiating posture is about to be answered for everyone. Iran is not waiting passively — it is spending, rearming, and embedding. The Russia MANPADS deal is a three-year project. The Chinese anti-ship missiles are imminent. Gaza’s “transition” is proceeding on schedule — unfortunately that schedule belongs to Hamas rather than Jerusalem. And inside Israel, a coalition that can’t hold eight Likud votes on a VAT exemption is about to face a conscription bill. This doesn’t really suggest resolution on any front.
⚡️Flash Brief: The Day in 90 Seconds or Less
Iran Rearms: Russia delivers Verba MANPADS under a €500M deal; China anti-ship missile transfer near completion. See The War Today.
Strike Window: Trump’s 10-day ultimatum expires this week as Poland, Germany, Japan, and Serbia order citizens out of Iran. See Developments to Watch.
Hamas Embedded: Leaked files confirm al-Qassam commanders placed in Gaza ministries; IDF warned Netanyahu in January. See The War Today.
PIJ Rising: Islamic Jihad fills Hamas’s operational vacuum in northern Judea and Samaria, deepening Iran’s foothold. See The War Today.
Coalition Fractures: Eight Likud MKs voted against Smotrich’s VAT order and warned they’ll break on conscription too. See Inside Israel.
Corbyn’s Blood Libel: Former UK Labour leader broadcast IDF organ-harvesting claims from Al-Shifa’s Hamas-linked director. See Israel and the World.
Buchenwald Protest: Anti-Zionist group plans demonstration at Nazi death camp on liberation anniversary, accusing the memorial of “genocide denial.” See Israel and the World.
Modi Address Wednesday: Supreme Court President Amit excluded again; opposition threatening boycott of Knesset session. See Inside Israel.
Below: theater-by-theater operational analysis, proxy rearming logic, coalition arithmetic, and the decisions that have to land in the next 72 hours.
