Shalom, friends.
The war has shifted into that unnerving phase where everything looks calmer on the map and much sharper under the surface. Hamas is now running a “lost body, let’s talk statehood” scam around Ran Gvili, z”l, while rockets in Judea and Samaria move from fantasy to production line a few hundred meters from Israeli homes. Up north, a brutal winter storm is rolling in just as Hezbollah weighs whether to take one more shot under cloud and wind cover before the December 31 deadline. Inside the country, the state is legalizing long-rooted Samaria towns, clearing fringe outposts, pushing a real Haredi draft law, and finally moving an October 7 commission—even as foreign capitals still call this a “far-right” government and demand Phase II theater in Gaza.
Here’s the situation before the rain really starts (though looking out the window, I’m pondering the choice of those words).
⚡️Flash Brief: The Day in 90 Seconds or Less
Gaza: Hamas claims “objective difficulty” finding Ran Gvili’s body as the US presses Israel hard to launch Phase II. See The War Today & Developments to Watch.
Judea & Samaria: Shin Bet busts Tulkarm rocket cell; four rockets, one with live warhead, found near Israeli towns. See The War Today & Developments to Watch.
North: IDF hits Radwan sites; storm “Byron” raises concern Hezbollah will exploit weather to strike under low visibility. See The War Today & Developments to Watch.
Iran / Axis: IDF says Tehran has resumed high-rate ballistic missile production six months after the 12-day war. See Developments to Watch & Israel and the World.
Inside Israel: Six Samaria communities legalized; four violent outposts evacuated; October 7 commission bill advanced; Lahav 433 chief under investigation. See Inside Israel.
Politics & society: Haredi draft outline moves; rabbis convene on service; “war poor” data deepen; massive Hanukkah menorah set at the Kotel. See Inside Israel.
Diplomacy & info-war: Egypt links Trump–Netanyahu–Sissi summit to a $35b gas deal; Qatar’s Doha Forum and CAIR drama keep laundering Muslim Brotherhood narratives. See Israel and the World & Briefly Noted.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Tehran, and parts of the “international community” are all trying the same move in different theaters: blur reality, stretch time, and force Israel into other people’s scripts. Yesterday it was “stored weapons” and a fantasy ISF that never disarms anyone. Today it’s a conveniently missing body, a ten-year “hudna” dressed up as peace, and storm cover in the north that looks tailor-made for a revenge shot at Galilee.
On our side of the line, Israel is hardening its borders, exposing rocket lines before they’re fired, legalizing communities that have been a fact for 30 years, and finally writing into law the investigations and manpower framework a serious country needs.
Let’s explore.
The War Today
Hamas Plays the “Lost Body” Card to Try Forcing Phase II
Hamas is now arguing that it “cannot be forced” to disarm and will only give up its weapons as part of a negotiated path to a Palestinian state — a state it openly refuses to recognize — while portraying the daily executions, checkpoints, and gunmen policing half the Strip as “restoring order.” A Hamas source in Doha told Israeli media that Israel’s two-year military campaign failed to disarm the group and insisted weapons will only be relinquished through political talks tied to the 1967 borders, not through ultimatums. At the same time, Islamic Jihad now claims it has “returned all hostages,” even as Hamas and the Red Cross fail to locate the body of Master Sgt. Ran Gvili — the last hostage whose return Israel has made a condition for moving to Phase II. Israeli assessments are that PIJ and Hamas are still hiding his remains. Former hostage-negotiation chief Nitzan Alon says Hamas faces “objective difficulty” due to early-war chaos, but stresses pressure works and cannot be lifted. Underground, IDF troops found a booby-trapped Hamas site containing Captain Daniel Peretz’s (z”l) weapon — grim evidence that hostages, bodies, and tunnels remain intertwined in one operational system. Amidst this, Washington is pressing Israel to advance Trump’s “20-point plan,” while Turkey and Qatar claim preparations for a multinational ISF are “complete” — even inventing the lie that Israel wants Turkish troops to deploy in Gaza.
Assessment: Hamas is not confused — it is executing a strategy. By blurring the trail of Ran Gvili’s body, admitting only to “objective difficulties,” and dangling conditional “talks” on disarmament, Hamas is trying to flip hostage remains into veto power over Phase II. Every word from Doha is designed to shift disarmament from a prerequisite to a bargaining chip. Israel’s red line remains the only sane one: no Phase II, no ISF, no withdrawal, and no political theatrics until the last hostage body is home and Hamas’s military capability is irreversibly broken. Anyone pretending otherwise is auditioning for October 6.
IDF Cracks Rocket Network Steps from Israeli Towns
A bomb discovered under an IDF vehicle at a Ma’ale Adumim garage triggered a Shin Bet investigation that exposed a full rocket-production cell operating out of the Tulkarm belt — with three rockets in assembly, one fully armed with a warhead, and explosive material buried just meters from Israeli population centers. The suspects, including Ahmad Abu Samara and Khalil Kharisha, admitted to multiple attacks on IDF vehicles, including the bombing that wounded former Menashe Brigade commander Col. A. Forensic evidence traced the network back to Attil, revealing a structured pipeline: bombings of IDF armor, rocket manufacturing, detonators, comms equipment, and a weapons cache designed for short-range strikes into central Israel. This is the second confirmed rocket discovery on the ridge in weeks, matching the broader pattern of Iran-backed terror networks that Israel has been uprooting from Tubas to Tammun.
Assessment: Rockets in Judea and Samaria were once fringe experiments; now they are industrializing under Iranian influence and local clans who believe the northern war will stretch Israeli bandwidth. The IDF’s proactive raids are hitting the factories before the rockets hit the towns. If Israel treats Judea and Samaria as a marginal front, Iran will turn it into the next Gaza. Treating it as a security belt is not ideology — it’s geometry.
Hezbollah Tests Israel Under Storm Cover While Syria Plays Diplomatic Games
Israel hit more than a dozen Hezbollah training and weapons sites — including Radwan invasion-force compounds — while intelligence flagged four large explosive-capable drones seized in Tripoli’s port, apparently shipped from China under a shell company. The IDF warns Hezbollah may exploit the incoming extreme storm — high winds, low visibility — to attempt a retaliatory strike for the Tabatabai assassination, prompting an elevated alert status at Northern Command. In southern Syria, IDF troops opened fire after riots in Khan Arnabeh, shortly before a rare incident showed armed Syrian regime forces driving past IDF vehicles — a surreal snapshot of a battlefield with no functional lines of authority outside of the IDF. Meanwhile, Syrian media reported rockets striking near Mezzeh military airport, and jihadist cells in Damascus openly chanting genocidal slogans. Against this backdrop, the PM’s Office denied reports of a Syria–Israel security deal as “fake news,” even as Trump signals he wants “strong dialogue” with Damascus and lifted sanctions as a confidence gesture.
Assessment: The northern front has a three-layer problem: Hezbollah preparing [for a weather-covered strike, amongst other things], Syria’s regime trying to launder itself through diplomatic theater, and Iran pushing proxy infrastructure across Lebanon and Syria. The IDF’s campaign — tunnels destroyed, compounds hit, drones intercepted — is the only thing preventing a coordinated northern conflagration. But the weather window is real, and so is the Dec 31 deadline.
Inside Israel
Settlements Move From “Temporary” to Sovereign Logic as Six Samaria Towns Are Legalized and Fringe Outposts Are Cleared
Israel formally legalized six long-standing Samaria communities — Ahiya, Harasha, Migron, Nofei Prat, Adei Ad and Shvut Rachel — granting them jurisdiction zones and full municipal standing after three decades of bureaucratic limbo. The move follows IDF Central Command’s demarcation orders and reflects the government’s explicit strategy, led by Netanyahu and Smotrich, to regularize Jewish life east of the Green Line rather than treat it as a zoning irregularity. Simultaneously, Border Police and IDF units evacuated four illegal outposts defined by the security establishment as hubs of genuine extremist violence — part of Netanyahu’s directive to clear 14 such sites to protect both civilians and the broader settlement enterprise. That dual move, legalizing rooted communities while uprooting fringe groups that endanger them, is the opposite of the “far-right takeover” caricature repeated in foreign media.
Assessment: Mainstream settlement is being entrenched, fringe vigilantism is being dismantled, and Samaria is being treated as the strategic belt it objectively is—ensuring Judea and Samaria are governed by law, not by teenagers with GoPros or diplomats with colonial fantasies.
Netanyahu Advances 10/7 Commission as Police Purge Corruption Nodes
Likud MK Ariel Kallner advanced the national October 7 investigation bill — coordinated with the Prime Minister’s Office — laying the groundwork for a commission modeled on America’s 9/11 inquiry. Netanyahu stressed it will be fully balanced between coalition and opposition and that “no one will be shielded,” directly countering the lazy narrative abroad that he “avoids scrutiny.” At the same time, Israel’s Lahav 433 commander, Assistant-Chief Meni Benjamin, was exposed for suspected leaks to suspects in the Bakri crime gang, triggering a major corruption sweep that netted senior municipal officials and criminal operatives across Nazareth and Tayibe. The PID froze Benjamin’s contact access, while Northern Command police bragged — correctly — that they are “settling accounts” with criminal organizations attempting to dominate Arab municipalities. In Tel Aviv, Hostages Square began its symbolic dismantling as the protest movement shifts toward more focused work, coordinated with the family of Ran Gvili, whose body remains the state’s immovable red line.
Assessment: The irony is that many in the Diaspora will believe the worst of Israel’s government based on international and ideological press — while correctly understanding that they need to filter those same sources about Israel as a whole. Parliamentary coalitions aren’t “far-right regimes” — they’re math. Likud is closer to American Democrats than to the caricatures in foreign papers and Bibi’s politics are closer to Hillary Clinton’s than to Pol Pot. We ought to be willing to look past the propaganda to the facts and so must the Israeli establishment. A nation willing to investigate itself under fire is a nation confident enough to win the next round. If only neither the political echelon nor the judicial guild interfere.
Israel Debates Duties, Not Identity, as Draft Law Moves Forward
Netanyahu called the emerging Haredi draft bill “the beginning of a historic process,” noting that its conscription benchmarks dwarf previous frameworks and will allow the IDF to release reserve battalions as Haredim enter service. Rabbis from across the religious spectrum met to continue crafting halachic pathways into national service. Meanwhile, Free Israel’s “Freedom Index” crowned Hod Hasharon the country’s most liberal city and placed Netivot at the bottom — a nice reminder that the real cultural map of Israel is more complex than the foreign headline “Israel’s most extreme government ever.” It’s a country of millions of micro-coalitions and hundreds of political tribes. Compromise isn’t moral collapse, it’s daily governance—especially where you don’t just have team red vs. team blue. In Jerusalem, the towering Hanukkah menorah reached the Western Wall, where thousands will gather — hostages’ families, soldiers, ministers, diplomats — affirming that national solidarity survives political noise.
Assessment: Israel’s home front continues to negotiate its the social contract. The Haredi draft fight is overdue, the municipal culture wars are predictable, and the Hanukkah ceremonies underscore that the Jewish center still holds. The foreign press prefers a cartoon: “ultra-right theocrats vs. liberal heroes.” Israelis know better. Political complexity is the price of a parliamentary democracy.
Israel and the World
From Leviathan to the Red Sea: Jerusalem Plays a Longer Game
Israel is again being pressed by Washington. This time to close a three-way summit with Trump and Egypt’s el-Sissi, with Cairo openly tying the meeting to a $35b Leviathan gas deal and, quietly, to demands for Israeli pullbacks from the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors. Energy Minister Eli Cohen is pushing back, insisting any export deal must lock in cheap domestic pricing and real Egyptian action against weapons smuggling, not just warm photos at Mar-a-Lago. At the same time, Jerusalem is considering how Israel can plug directly into Asian tech and defense supply chains with India, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and others, pairing their hardware mass-production with Israeli cyber, AI, and battlefield know-how in a way that counters both Beijing and Tehran. An analysis from JNS warns that Iran is quietly turning collapsed Sudan into another Red Sea launchpad, only 600 miles from Eilat — a future Houthi-style front with better geography and “plausible deniability.” In Washington, the Israel Allies Foundation is gathering lawmakers from 30+ countries, plus Reza Pahlavi and Trump, to talk sanctions, Iran, and faith-based defense of Israel. In New York, the PMO is forced to swat away “fake news” claims that Netanyahu rejected a Syria deal at the UN, clarifying there were only exploratory talks and zero commitments to withdrawals.
Assessment: Israel is a regional power with global options, not a client state begging for approval. Gas to Egypt is leverage, not a gift. Asia is a strategic hedge, not a betrayal of Washington. Sudan is a warning that the Red Sea can’t be left to Iran and NGOs. The more Jerusalem treats Leviathan, the Jordan barrier, and Asian partnerships as parts of one map, the less it will have to live with other people’s “day-after” fantasies later.
Muslim Brotherhood Launders Itself While Europe Rewards Its UN Mouthpiece
On one front, the US House Foreign Affairs Committee quietly gutted a strong Muslim Brotherhood designation bill — stripping mandatory terror designations and sanctions — even as Florida went the other way and officially labeled both the Brotherhood and CAIR as foreign terrorist organizations. CAIR responded in the only way it knows. It is suing Governor DeSantis for “defamation” and whining that he serves “the Israeli government” — the kind of line you usually hear in Tehran, not Tallahassee, but this is our new normal. At the same time, FBI Director Kash Patel just signed two MOUs with Qatar’s Interior Ministry to deepen training and intel sharing, while Doha still hosts Hamas leadership, funds Brotherhood media, and runs Al Jazeera as the axis’ main narrative cannon. In Europe, the Basque regional government decided to hand its René Cassin human-rights prize to Francesca Albanese — a UN rapporteur who has called Gaza a “21st-century concentration camp,” said the Oct 7 victims weren’t killed “because of their Jewishness,” and ranted about a “Jewish lobby” subjugating America — while the US has already sanctioned her for lawfare against its citizens. Cassin, a Zionist who admired Israel and wrote the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, would probably throw the plaque back in their faces.
This is how respectable antisemitism works in 2025. You don’t scream “Jews are demons,” you accuse Israel of genocide, apartheid, and “concentration camps,” then demand endless investigations, tribunals, commissions, rapporteurs. The point isn’t to discover anything; it’s to make the Jew stand in the town square turning out his pockets while the crowd watches. As one writer put it, the antisemite rarely believes the Jew actually stole anything — he just enjoys the humiliation ritual. ICC rumors, Guardian smears about “Israeli spying,” Basque prizes for Albanese, CAIR’s First Amendment cosplay. It’s all the same sport. Unfortunately, the “game” always ends with more violence.
Assessment: Israel’s answer cannot be to keep playing defense in courts built and staffed by people who already decided the verdict. The state needs to back friends who legislate firmly against the Brotherhood and its front groups, expose the Qatari and UN networks funding this circus, and treat lawfare as one more hostile capability to be deterred, not flattered. You don’t argue with people who enjoy watching you empty your pockets.
Paris, Sydney, Toronto: Jew-Hatred Surges, But So Do Our Friends
In Paris, Noa Tishby walked down the street as an openly Jewish, openly pro-Israel woman and was swarmed by protesters shouting that Hamas is “fighting for freedom,” that Barghouti “never committed violent acts,” and that Israel is “genocidal.” When the video went online, the same old story played out: pundits and randos didn’t ask what was wrong with a mob glorifying terror; they asked what she did to “provoke” them. Zvika Klein, who did the same walk with a kippah and hidden camera a decade ago, describes identical abuse — and the same smug question from a British journalist: isn’t your very Jewishness the provocation? That is how Europe openly turns Jewish visibility into a crime. In Sydney, leaders of the seven largest diaspora communities met under the J7 banner and warned that Australia’s IRGC-linked synagogue arsons and five-fold spike in antisemitic incidents are not an anomaly but the local face of the same campaign hitting Manchester, Boulder, and Brooklyn. They’re pushing Canberra to finally implement its own special envoy’s antisemitism plan instead of commissioning yet another report.
And in Toronto, you see the other side of the story. Raheel Raza — a Pakistani-Canadian Sunni Muslim who has been to Israel more than most Jews — runs the Council of Muslims Against Antisemitism and Muslims Facing Tomorrow, writes books with titles like Their Jihad… Not My Jihad, and spends her time telling mosques, parliaments and campuses that the real enemy isn’t Jews, it’s the jihadist ideology that wants to erase them and hijack Islam along the way. She co-organized joint Yom HaShoah/Eid events, took interfaith delegations to Israel, and calls out Canada’s government for recognizing a Palestinian “state” run by terrorists while Jews are being beaten in its streets. The line isn’t really between religions, it’s between people who want a civilized world and people who want Hamas’ world.
Assessment: The diaspora battlespace remains fully kinetic: arsons, assaults, intimidation, and a chorus of “what did the Jew do to provoke it?” layered over the top. The good news is we still have some allies — they’re Muslim women in Toronto, security chiefs in Canberra, mayors in Sydney, and yes, loud Israelis in Paris who refuse to hide their faces. Israel needs to treat this as part of the same war it’s fighting in Rafah and on the Litani and stop apologizing for existing. The radicals have won a few battles. Whether they win the war depends on how seriously we and our allies take this front.
Briefly Noted
Culture, Religion, and Society
Jewish News: A pro-Zionist Royal Holloway student suspended for telling a keffiyeh-clad activist she was “wearing a tea towel” had his request for emergency tuition extensions rejected, with the judge noting most issues were already resolved. The full trial next year will show how British campuses now treat defending Israel as more dangerous than actual antisemitic abuse.
Jewish Insider: Qatar’s Doha Forum hosted Tucker Carlson, Rob Malley, Trita Parsi, and other friends of terror-adjacent narratives in a gleaming soft-power gala designed to make an Islamist petro-state look like Aspen with falafel. The presence of Western diplomats and CEOs shows just how far Qatar’s legitimacy-laundering has gotten — when a regime hosts Hamas and buys half your think tank circuit, no one bats an eye.
Times of Israel: Iran and Egypt complained that their 2026 World Cup match in Seattle is being branded a “Pride Match,” calling LGBTQ symbolism an “irrational move.” In news that will shock absolutely no one, two regimes that jail or execute gay people objected to rainbow flags but not to FIFA giving them a global platform.
JNS: Brussels’ Great Synagogue was evacuated after an anonymous caller phoned in a bomb threat that turned out to be false. Europe keeps telling Jews they’re perfectly safe — as long as they don’t mind periodic bomb squads clearing their shuls.
JNS: A U.S. Marines billboard in Baltimore was defaced with “Nazi” graffiti and a Hitler mustache, triggering police investigation and condemnation from the city council’s (Jewish) president.
Diplomacy & Geopolitics
Jerusalem Post: A new report shows CAIR Action — the political arm of CAIR — has been operating illegally in 22 states without required licenses or registrations, all while soliciting donations and mobilizing voters. The same outfit screaming about “Israel First politicians” appears to be running an unregistered, Turkey-aligned influence machine across the U.S.
Culture, Religion & Society
Jewish Insider: Columbia’s antisemitism task force found that 100% of its full-time Middle East faculty are explicitly anti-Zionist, with students reporting that courses routinely treat Zionism as illegitimate and silence Jewish perspectives. It’s the academy’s version of a closed information loop: teach only one ideology, call it “critical inquiry,” and wonder why the campus keeps erupting into anti-Jewish mob theater.
Developments to Watch
Northern Front (Lebanon / Syria)
Storm Window on the Northern Front – Northern Command warns Hezbollah could use the incoming extreme storm — low visibility, high winds — to launch a revenge strike for Tabatabai under weather cover. If they miscalculate and hit civilians or bases hard, the Dec 31 “disarm or else” calendar may jump forward a few pages.
Chinese Drones in Tripoli’s Port – Lebanese security forces seized four heavy-lift drones in Tripoli, each able to carry ~14 kg of explosives, arriving via a shell company from China. Somebody (wonder what ideology they might align with?) is quietly building a long-range attack option out of northern Lebanon.
Khan Arnaba Friction Tests Syria “Deconfliction” – IDF forces cut the Damascus–Quneitra road with a new checkpoint, dispersed rioters, then shared tarmac with armed Syrian security pickups in broad daylight. The more Syrian forces feel emboldened to cruise near IDF positions, the more likely one jittery trigger pull turns this “managed” flank into another live front.
Gaza & Southern Theater
Ran Gvili Search Stalls Under US Clock – Hamas–Red Cross teams say they failed to locate Ran Gvili’s body in Zeitoun just as Washington leans on Jerusalem to move into Phase II, and Huckabee talks about “24–48 hours.” The terrorists are playing “lost and found” with a fallen Israeli, and the White House is pretending the timetable is a logistics issue, not a red line.
Ten-Year Hudna as Reload Time – A Saudi report says Hamas is pushing a 10-year “hudna” — stop using weapons, take over governance, open the blockade, guarantee Israel won’t return — classic Islamic ceasefire logic for when you’re weaker and need to rebuild your arsenal. Calling it “peace” doesn’t change the fact it’s a demand to let Hamas rearm behind a UN logo.
Turkish Troops Talk Their Way into Gaza – Ankara claims its soldiers are ready to join the Gaza stabilization force and that Israel “wants them there,” flatly contradicting every Israeli statement on earth. This is Turkey trial-ballooning its way into a veto seat over Gaza’s future; if the ISF mandate isn’t nailed down now, you’ll wake up with Erdoğan straddling the Yellow Line.
Judea & Samaria
Rocket Ambitions on the Ridge – The IDF confirms three rockets were uncovered in Judea and Samaria in October, including one with a live warhead, matching the Tulkarm rocket workshop busted just steps from Israeli towns. Short-range, homemade systems today; a Jenin–Tulkarm belt that can hit the coastal plain tomorrow if the army ever treats the ridge as optional. LIKELY TO ESCALATE
Regional Axis (Iran, Houthis, Militias)
Iran’s Missile Production Surges Back – IDF briefers say Tehran is already back to high-rate ballistic missile production just six months after the 12-day war, while also harassing its tiny Jewish community over “contacts” with Israel-linked media. That’s the regime in one sentence: more steel in the silos, more fear in Jews’ living rooms, and zero intention of de-escalating. LIKELY TO ESCALATE
Jihadist Noise Around Damascus – Rockets of “unknown origin” hit near Mezzeh airbase as Al-Qaeda cells in Syria pump out videos chanting “Khaybar, Khaybar ya Yehud.” The more Syria is reframed in Washington as “stabilizing,” the easier it becomes for Iran and jihadis to use it as a staging ground that diplomats oh so politely refuse to see.
Diplomatic & Legal
Phase II Pressure Campaign Tightens – US officials are pushing Netanyahu hard to move into the next stage of Trump’s 20-point plan, arguing it “already exceeded expectations” and will somehow disarm Hamas. Trying to force Israel into Phase II while Hamas keeps its guns and hides the last hostage body is how you turn a ceasefire mechanism into a suicide vest.
ISF Coalition Still Shapeless and Risky – Azerbaijan is “considering” joining the Gaza ISF, Italy is in talks, and Turkey claims its troops are ready, while leaked drafts show a peacekeeping-heavy, disarmament-light mandate. A multinational force that won’t touch Hamas’s weapons but will complicate Israeli freedom of action is simply another (now uniformed) human shield for terrorists.
Three things move from “discussion” to “fact” today. First, Hamas has stopped pretending disarmament is negotiable and started pretending Ran Gvili is “hard to find,” which is their way of turning a fallen Israeli into a veto over Trump’s 20-point circus. Any Israeli government that green-lights Phase II while that body is underground and Hamas’s weapons are intact is volunteering to own the next October 7. Second, Judea and Samaria just announced themselves as an active rocket theater: when you find a warhead and assembled tubes sitting a few hundred meters from Israeli towns, the argument about whether the ridge is “disputed territory” or a security belt is over. Third, the home front is finally matching the rhetoric — Jordan barrier, extended Order 8, legalized Samaria towns, a real October 7 inquiry track — even as parts of the legal guild and some of the commentariat still cling to old illusions about “far-right coalitions” and cartoon villains.
The next inflection points are already on the schedule: Cairo’s answer on Ran Gvili, Hezbollah’s behavior under storm “Byron” and as December 31 approaches, and whether the new October 7 commission bill becomes a real instrument of accountability. Everyone else will keep improvising ways to drag Israel back into the town square and make it empty its pockets for crimes it didn’t commit. Our job — in Rafah, on the Litani, in Tulkarm, and along the Jordan — is to keep answering with facts on the ground, not with performances for people who enjoy the humiliation ritual.
— Uri Zehavi · Intelligence Editor
With Modi Zehavi · Data + Research Analyst
🔒 Tip? Send it securely via signal: (@Uri.30) or proton: ([email protected]).
Like the Brief?