Israel Brief: Wednesday, February 25
The strike decision sits at the White House. Every actor in the region is now positioning for an outcome, not a negotiation.
Shalom, friends.
Trump’s ultimatum expires Friday. Eleven F-22s are already on the ground in Israel. A senior U.S. official told Israeli media that he wouldn’t be surprised if Trump declared war on Iran imminently. That is where we are. The week that began with Iran buying diplomatic hours in Geneva has the U.S. force posture past the point of ambiguity — and every regional actor, from Hezbollah to the LAF to the PLO, adjusting their public statements to the new reality while hedging their private commitments. None of that is reassurance.
⚡️Flash Brief: The Day in 90 Seconds or Less
F-22s in Israel: Eleven U.S. stealth fighters land at an IAF base in southern Israel from RAF Lakenheath. See Developments to Watch.
Strike Decision: Senior U.S. official says preparations are complete; decision now rests with Trump. See Developments to Watch.
Hezbollah Contradiction: Lebanese PM says Berri passed private non-intervention guarantees; Qassem publicly declared the opposite. See The War Today.
Samaria Operation: IDF launches multi-day counter-terrorism operation across three villages in Binyamin region. See The War Today.
PIJ Commander Confirmed: Palestinian Islamic Jihad acknowledges its rocket developer worked simultaneously as a Doctors Without Borders physiotherapist. See The War Today.
Haredi Draft: AG tells High Court no economic sanctions plan exists; declared evaders up from 2,257 to 16,880 in seven months. See Inside Israel.
Evacuation Failure on Record: State Comptroller finds “total disorder” in post-October 7 evacuations — Kfar Aza took 36 hours, no approved protocol existed. See Inside Israel.
NGO Deadline: Licenses for 37 aid groups expire March 1; 17 petition High Court; COGAT says affected groups represent under 1% of Gaza aid. See Israel and the World.
PLO Rejects Disarmament: PLO Secretary-General states Hamas is not a terror organization, opposes disarmament, and will not reform PA curricula. See Briefly Noted.
Below: theater-by-theater analysis, the Iran decision window, proxy positioning, coalition arithmetic, and the institutional failures that don’t wait for a ceasefire to matter.
