Vantage: March 2026

The regime is headless. The war is not over.

Israel killed the Supreme Leader of Iran on Saturday morning, collapsed Iran's command-and-control to four percent connectivity, and now the whole region waits to see what fills the vacuum. This month's Vantage assigns the probabilities the daily brief can't sustain — under fifteen percent that Iran reconstitutes a nuclear weapon in twenty-four months, twenty to thirty that Hezbollah enters now, three named succession paths with the odds attached. The strategic position consolidated decisively while the home front absorbed dead in Beit Shemesh and 150,000 Bedouin with no shelter to reach. Members get the full assessment — scenarios, triggers, what hardened and what slipped.

The only certainty is that the man who ordered “Death to Israel” is dead.

The Israel Brief is the Mitzpe Institute's read on Israel and the region — most mornings, Sunday through Thursday. More at mitzpe.org.