Israel Brief: Tuesday, March 24
Israel degrades 70% of Iran's launcher fleet. Trump claims a deal Tehran denies. The coalition buys its budget with reforms it promised not to abandon.
Shalom, friends.
The war entered a new phase overnight — not because anything on the battlefield changed direction, but because the diplomatic track lurched into public view before anyone agreed on what it contains. Trump says Iran accepted zero enrichment. Tehran says no talks occurred. Pakistan is booking conference rooms in Islamabad. Meanwhile, the IDF crossed the 70% mark on Iran’s ballistic launcher fleet, Radwan commandos surrendered south of the Litani, and the Knesset spent some of its last working hours before a month’s recess expanding rabbinical court jurisdiction while citizens cycled through shelters. Here’s where things stand.
⚡️Flash Brief: The Day in 90 Seconds or Less
Iran launcher fleet: IDF reports 330 of 470 ballistic launchers destroyed; daily fire drops from 90 to roughly 10. See The War Today.
Tehran strikes: Over 100 munitions hit IRGC headquarters, Quds Force bases, and weapons manufacturing sites overnight. See The War Today.
Diplomacy or theater: Trump claims Iran agreed to zero enrichment; Tehran denies any contact; Islamabad talks possible this week. See The War Today.
Radwan surrender: Hezbollah commandos captured south of the Litani — entered from the Beqaa at the start of the war, contradicting LAF control claims. See The War Today.
Hamas rebuilds: Armed operatives tax 4,200 weekly truck convoys in Gaza, refurbish tunnels, and recruit — while Israel’s attention stays on Iran. See The War Today.
Budget clears committee: NIS 850 billion budget heads to Thursday plenum vote; Smotrich shed dairy reform and halved the bank tax to secure coalition support. See Inside Israel.
Rabbinical courts expanded: Knesset passed arbitration bill 65-41 in wartime vote; legislature recesses Tuesday until May. See Inside Israel.
Houthis mobilize: Five-front reinforcement since March 15; Saudi Arabia working to keep them out of the war. See Briefly Noted.
European Jew-hate campaign: Dutch police foil fourth synagogue attack this month; Iran-linked Ashab Al Yamin continues cross-border operations. See Briefly Noted.
Below: the Assessment on why Hamas’s 15% truck tariff matters more than the headlines, what the Radwan surrenders reveal about LAF enforcement south of the Litani, and Iran’s naval mines in the Strait that few are tracking.
The military clock runs in Israel’s favor: launchers are disappearing, fire rates are collapsing, and IRGC command infrastructure is being dismantled compound by compound. The diplomatic clock is accelerating in the opposite direction — Trump wants this wrapped by April 9 and is building an off-ramp whether Jerusalem designed one or not. The domestic clock is the wildcard: a budget vote Thursday, a Knesset dark until May, and Hamas quietly rebuilding the thing the war was supposed to end. Three clocks, three tempos, one government trying to manage all of them at once.
The War Today
IDF Degrades 70% of Iran’s Ballistic Launcher Fleet as Trump Opens Diplomatic Track
Israeli Air Force jets struck more than 100 munitions’ worth of targets across Tehran in one of the campaign’s densest single strike waves. Targets included the IRGC’s main internal security headquarters in the Chitgar district — embedded in civilian infrastructure and used to coordinate Basij battalions and regional unit activity — along with a Quds Force intelligence command post, an IRGC aerial defense headquarters, an IRGC Ground Forces headquarters inside a central military compound (some facilities in that compound had been struck in earlier phases), and a Quds Force base directing operational and intelligence activity. The IDF also hit a Ministry of Defense naval cruise missile manufacturing site and additional facilities tied to ballistic missile systems and warhead production. Approximately 330 of Iran’s estimated 470 ballistic missile launchers have now been destroyed or rendered inoperable — more than half by direct strikes, the remainder disabled after Israeli strikes sealed tunnel entrances to underground storage facilities. Daily missile fire toward Israel has dropped to roughly 10 launches per day, down from approximately 90 on the war’s first day. Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that Israel eliminated two more nuclear scientists in recent days and said he spoke with President Trump, who believes there is “an opportunity to leverage the tremendous achievements reached alongside the U.S. military to realize the goals of the war through an agreement.” Trump publicly outlined maximalist demands: zero enrichment, transfer of all enriched uranium, missile limitations, and regional peace — and claimed Iran had agreed to no enrichment, including for civilian purposes. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei denied any talks took place, calling reports “fake news” aimed at manipulating markets. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf also denied negotiations. A senior Iranian official says that Washington requested a meeting with Ghalibaf but Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has yet to review it. Mediating countries are attempting to convene a meeting in Islamabad this week, with Pakistan positioning itself as lead broker. Pakistani army chief Asim Munir spoke with Trump on Sunday. Vice President Vance spoke by phone with Netanyahu about the components of a possible agreement. Israeli officials expressed low expectations that Tehran would accept current conditions and concern that Trump’s five-day extension of his Strait of Hormuz ultimatum could be read as weakness. The Pentagon is considering deploying approximately 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to support potential operations, including a possible seizure of Kharg Island. Trump asked Israel to refrain from striking Iranian energy facilities. A cluster-warhead ballistic missile struck the Haifa area, with submunition impacts reported in Nesher; Magen David Adom reported no direct casualties but several people injured while seeking shelter. Separately, politically-charged anonymous leaks targeted Mossad Director David Barnea for allegedly overselling regime-change prospects. Indications are, however, that Barnea consistently presented predictions with heavy qualifications.
Assessment: Seventy percent of Iran’s ballistic launcher fleet is gone. Daily fire has dropped 89% from the war’s opening salvo. The regime cannot show its Supreme Leader on video, cannot keep a successor functioning for a full week, and is now firing cluster munitions at residential neighborhoods because it has nothing left that reaches a military target. That is the military picture. The diplomatic picture is murkier — and deliberately so. Trump’s public claim that Iran agreed to zero enrichment was immediately denied by every Iranian official with a Twitter account [I know it’s supposed to be called X, but really it’s still Twitter]. Which means either the claim is premature, or the channel is real and Tehran needs deniability while it negotiates. Pakistan’s emergence as mediator and the Islamabad meeting track suggest backchannel contact is more advanced than Iran’s public posture admits. The April 9 target date gives Israel roughly two more weeks of operational freedom to continue degrading the missile program, the nuclear infrastructure, and whatever is left of IRGC command-and-control. Netanyahu’s public framing — “leverage military achievements into a diplomatic outcome” — is a signal that Jerusalem is preparing the political ground for a deal it may not fully control the terms of. The Barnea leaks are a distraction, but show someone wants a scapegoat ready if regime change doesn’t materialize. And the Mossad chief is being pre-positioned for that role. Time to dust off the old CV. The actual intelligence question — whether the regime can survive indefinitely at 4% internet connectivity, no functioning command chain, and a population that already tried to overthrow it in January — remains unanswered.
Radwan Commandos Surrender in Southern Lebanon
Several Hezbollah Radwan Force commandos surrendered to Givati Brigade troops in southern Lebanon after being detected preparing to fire an anti-tank missile at Israeli forces and establishing a launch position aimed at northern communities. The IDF seized weapons and equipment and destroyed the structure they operated from. Interrogation by Military Intelligence Directorate Unit 504 revealed the operatives had entered southern Lebanon from the Beqaa Valley at the start of Operation Roaring Lion — directly contradicting Lebanese Armed Forces claims of operational control south of the Litani River. The IDF rightly stated the case demonstrates the LAF’s failure to prevent the transfer of terrorists and weapons into the area in violation of existing agreements. Separately, the ultra-Orthodox Hashmonaim Brigade, operating under the 300th Baram Formation, conducted its first missions in Lebanon, including targeted raids in the south as part of forward defense operations. Brigade Commander Lt. Col. S. said the unit would “continue to operate on the front lines of combat while maintaining the ultra-Orthodox lifestyle of its fighters.” The IDF also struck an IRGC Quds Force operative in Beirut and began striking Hezbollah infrastructure in the city. In Kiryat Shmona, multiple Hezbollah rocket impacts hit the city in a single hour, with a man in his 50s sustaining moderate-to-serious shrapnel injuries to the face after a rocket struck a road and damaged a nearby bus. Home Front Command instructed northern residents near the confrontation line to remain close to protected spaces and minimize movement. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, in an interview with Saudi outlet Al-Hadath, endorsed his government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah and blamed the group for dragging Lebanon into the war. “Each of Hezbollah’s six missiles cost the lives of 10,000 displaced Lebanese,” he said. Salam backed the August 2025 disarmament mandate under the Taif Agreement, called for the expulsion of Iranian operatives — acknowledging many hold forged passports — and endorsed direct negotiations with Israel, framing them as distinct from recognition: “Negotiation doesn’t mean recognition.”
Assessment: Radwan operatives arriving from the Beqaa Valley at the start of the war and operating freely south of the Litani is the clearest evidence yet that the LAF’s claim of southern control is a fiction maintained for diplomatic convenience. The surrenders themselves tell you something about Hezbollah’s internal state — elite commandos who chose capture over combat after recognizing the scale of Israeli operations around them. PM Salam’s public endorsement of disarmament, Iranian expulsion, and direct talks with Israel is the most forward-leaning statement from a Lebanese head of government in decades — and it lands precisely because Hezbollah is too battered to punish him for it. Though Salam cannot realistically convert that rhetoric into enforcement. The LAF has neither the capacity nor the political mandate to confront Hezbollah remnants, and the IRGC operatives Salam wants expelled hold forged documents in a country whose security services cannot track them. The words are right. The institutions are not. Plus, as we’ve discussed before, once a jihadist, always a jihadist.
Hamas Rebuilds in Gaza While IDF Redirects Battalion to Judea and Samaria
Hamas is reconstructing its infrastructure and reasserting sovereign control over Gaza while Israel’s operational focus remains on Iran and the northern front. Footage and intelligence show convoys of trucks guarded by armed Hamas operatives entering Gaza — roughly 4,200 trucks per week — with the organization levying a 15% fee on every shipment, reducing its dependence on Qatari aid. Armed operatives carrying light weapons and RPGs direct movement and enforce order up to the yellow line. Col. (res.) Alon Evyatar characterized Hamas’s message as clear: “the terrorist organization still considers itself ‘the homeowner.’” Hamas remains Gaza’s largest employer, with tens of thousands of operatives — in uniforms and civilian clothing — drawing salaries and managing municipal services. Tunnel refurbishment, new recruitment, and weapons smuggling including drones are ongoing. Residents of border communities including Netiv HaAsara and Kfar Aza report growing distrust in official assurances of Hamas’s collapse, with many independently monitoring events beyond the fence. The IDF diverted an infantry battalion originally designated for Lebanon to Judea and Samaria following an uptick in unrest and a recent lynching of a Jewish teen — with the military indicating additional reinforcements may follow. In Ramallah, Israel Police and Border Police raided a printing house producing incitement materials glorifying terrorists. Two Ramallah residents were detained and printing machines seized. The Shin Bet and police also foiled an assassination plot targeting National Security Minister Ben Gvir — a 20-year-old East Jerusalem resident made contact via social media with a figure in Yemen who encouraged attacks including targeting a minister, and separately communicated with a terrorist operative in Turkey.
Assessment: Hamas is rebuilding in plain sight because nobody is stopping it. The 15% tariff on 4,200 weekly truck convoys is a tax system — the operational signature of a governing authority, not a defeated insurgency. Every week that Israel’s attention stays fixed on Iran is a week Hamas uses to reconstitute the very infrastructure the war was supposed to dismantle. The border community residents watching this unfold from their living rooms understand what official briefings refuse to say. The operational window to contest Hamas’s structural re-embedding is quickly closing. The IDF battalion redeployment to Judea and Samaria — pulled from the Lebanon rotation — is a resource allocation signal that deserves scrutiny. The Ben Gvir assassination plot — a Yemen-connected, Turkey-facilitated operation targeting an Israeli cabinet minister via a radicalized eastern Jerusalem resident — is the kind of hybrid threat that thrives when multiple fronts are absorbing all available attention.
Inside Israel
Budget Clears Finance Committee; Thursday Plenum Vote Is the Last Gate
The Knesset Finance Committee approved the 2026 state budget Monday for its second and third readings in the plenum, scheduled for Thursday. The government is authorized to spend approximately NIS 850 billion — NIS 621 billion in regular budget and NIS 228 billion in development and capital — with a spending limit of roughly NIS 699 billion and debt payments of NIS 151.81 billion. The Ministry of Defense budget exceeds NIS 142 billion after a NIS 30 billion wartime addition. Education receives nearly NIS 97 billion, National Insurance nearly NIS 64 billion, Health approximately NIS 63 billion. Finance Minister Smotrich was forced to shed major reforms to secure coalition support: the dairy reform and property tax on vacant land were shelved entirely, and approximately two-thirds of planned finance and infrastructure reforms were split from the Economic Arrangements bill on legal advice. The bank profits tax was halved — banks will pay NIS 3.25 billion over two years in exchange for removing the threat of permanent excess-profits legislation. Smotrich retained two wins: the establishment of small banks to increase competition and the widening of tax brackets for earners at NIS 16,000 gross monthly. The Haredi parties withdrew their demand to condition budget support on a conscription law after Netanyahu and Smotrich made clear that discussions would be postponed due to the war. The budget includes over NIS 5 billion in coalition funds, the majority earmarked for “Torah institutions.” Failure to pass by March 31 triggers automatic Knesset dissolution.
Assessment: The coalition bought Thursday’s vote by gutting Smotrich’s reform agenda and writing a NIS 5 billion check to the Haredi parties. The dairy reform — which Smotrich publicly swore he would not abandon — is gone. The bank tax, marketed as war financing, was negotiated down to a two-year payment that banks will treat as a rounding error. What survived is a budget that funds the war, buys off the coalition’s partners, and funds almost nothing that restructures Israel’s economy for the long term. The Haredi withdrawal of the conscription demand is the quietest trade in the package: they get NIS 5 billion for yeshivot and the draft conversation disappears until the war ends — at which point the leverage dynamic resets entirely. Seven days remain. The budget will almost certainly pass; the coalition cannot afford the alternative. But the price of passage is a reform agenda reduced to small banks and a tax bracket adjustment. Smotrich can claim survival. He cannot claim victory.
Knesset Expands Rabbinical Court Powers in 65-41 Wartime Vote
The Knesset passed legislation expanding rabbinical courts’ authority to serve as arbitrators in civil disputes, 65 to 41, after hours of debate. The bill — initiated by UTJ’s Moshe Gafni and Yisrael Eichler and Shas’s Ya’akov Asher and Yinon Azoulay — permits rabbinical courts to arbitrate civil matters with consent of all parties. The Constitution, Law, and Justice Committee excluded criminal and administrative proceedings, cases involving the state or local authorities, and disputes between current or former spouses. Child custody disputes remain eligible for arbitration. Opposition leader Lapid declared “the status quo died” and called the bill a step toward “a halachic state.” Liberman called it “absolute madness and moral bankruptcy” while citizens run to shelters. Gantz demanded the upcoming Knesset recess — beginning Tuesday and lasting until May — be shortened to focus on home front and security legislation. Women’s organizations warned that rabbinical courts’ non-egalitarian structure under halacha poses risks to women’s rights, particularly in custody matters. The bill’s sponsors argued rabbinical courts had handled civil disputes by consent for years until their authority was formally questioned.
Assessment: The coalition advanced a Haredi legislative priority during active wartime, hours before a recess that lasts until May, as millions of citizens cycle through shelters. The bill itself — voluntary arbitration with categorical exclusions — is narrower than the opposition’s rhetoric suggests. But the child custody provision is the biggest real issue, at least on the surface. Custody disputes involve power asymmetries that voluntary consent does not neutralize, and rabbinical courts operate under a framework that does not treat men and women as equal parties. The coalition calculates that the opposition’s outrage over wartime timing will fade faster than the Haredi parties’ institutional gains will compound. They are almost certainly right. The Knesset recesses next Tuesday. By the time it reconvenes, the war will have moved, the news cycle will have turned, and the rabbinical courts will have new jurisdiction.
Convicted Killer of IDF Soldier Released to Israeli City; Family Demands Deportation
Ibrahim Abu Moch, one of four PFLP Arab-Israeli terrorists who abducted and murdered 19-year-old Cpl. Moshe Tamam z”l while he was hitchhiking from Tiberias to Tel Aviv in 1984, was released to the Israeli-Arab city of Baqa al-Gharbiyye on Sunday. His original life sentence was commuted by President Shimon Peres as a gesture to Mahmoud Abbas under the argument that pre-Oslo terrorists should not be held fully accountable — an argument Palestinian Media Watch founder Itamar Marcus described as “grotesque, as though terrorism had somehow been legitimate before Oslo.” Abu Moch is now eligible for PA pay-for-slay payments [repackaged last year as welfare, yet are still ongoing regardless of what the paperwork says] and Israeli social services including health insurance and National Insurance benefits. His co-conspirator Rushdi Abu-Moch was released to the same city in 2021 to public celebrations. Tamam’s niece, Dr. Ortal Tamam — who gave birth two months ago and has spent much of those weeks in shelters — wrote to the Prime Minister and Shin Bet requesting activation of the 2023 Terrorist Deportation Law to send Abu Moch to Gaza. She has received no response. “You can’t, on the one hand, send my brother, my brother-in-law, my family, to the front line, and then, with the other hand, release our enemies back to Israel,” she said.
Assessment: A convicted terrorist who kidnapped and murdered an IDF soldier now lives ten minutes from his victim’s family, collects benefits from two governments — one of which his victim served — and the law designed to prevent exactly this outcome sits unused. The 2023 Terrorist Deportation Law exists. It passed. It has not been activated. Dr. Tamam’s unanswered letters to the Prime Minister and Shin Bet basically defines Israeli governance on this issue. The political incentive structure is clear: activating the law costs political capital with the legal establishment and the Arab sector; not activating it costs nothing visible — unless a murdered soldier’s family forces the question into public view. Which is what just happened.
Israel and the World
Bahrain Submits Chapter VII Resolution Authorizing Force to Secure Strait of Hormuz
Bahrain circulated a draft UN Security Council resolution invoking Chapter VII authority to secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz — a step beyond its earlier condemnation-only resolution. The text declares Iran’s actions a threat to international peace and security and authorizes member states, acting independently or through multinational naval partnerships, to use “all necessary means” in and around the Strait, including within territorial waters of coastal states, to secure transit passage and counter attempts to block navigation. Actions must be reported quarterly to the Security Council. The draft is backed by Gulf Arab states and the United States. However, Russia and China are expected to exercise vetoes. U.S. intelligence estimates indicate Iran has deployed approximately a dozen naval mines in the Strait. Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum — originally a 48-hour deadline threatening strikes on Iranian power plants — was extended by five days. European allies largely declined to contribute maritime forces: Germany, Spain, Italy, and Greece refused; Britain and Denmark offered vague willingness to explore options; Estonia was the sole unequivocal backer. The EU is discussing whether to extend its Red Sea Aspides mission mandate to cover the Strait.
Assessment: The resolution will die in the Security Council — Russia and China will see to that — and Bahrain knows it. The point is the precedent and the political signal: Gulf states are now formally requesting Chapter VII authorization for military action against Iran in a maritime domain where roughly a fifth of global oil transits. The text’s inclusion of “territorial waters of littoral states” is the sharpest edge — it would, if adopted, authorize foreign naval forces to operate inside Iranian and Omani waters. That will not happen through the UN. It may happen through a U.S.-led coalition acting outside it. The European refusals are instructive. Germany’s defense minister asking what “a handful of European frigates” could accomplish that the U.S. Navy cannot is the continental position stated pretty plainly. Europe will not secure its own energy supply lines. The dozen naval mines Iran has deployed in the Strait are a provocation calibrated below the threshold of a blockade but above the threshold of commercial tolerance — insurers, not navies, close the Strait. Bahrain’s resolution is a down payment on the post-war order: the Gulf states want a framework that makes Iran’s maritime threats actionable, and they want it on the record that they asked.
Briefly Noted
Frontline & Security
Jerusalem Post: Two brothers from Beitar Illit and Beit Shemesh were indicted for espionage after feeding an Iranian handler fabricated intelligence — created with ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, and Google Maps — in exchange for over NIS 100,000. One fabrication led to the arrest and interrogation of an innocent Iranian citizen. Separately, one defendant passed along genuine operational indicators overheard from a military acquaintance, which is why this is an indictment and not a comedy.
Jerusalem Post: The Houthis began major troop movements on five frontlines — including Hodeidah, Taiz, and Lahj — on March 15, reinforcing forward positions and intensifying recruitment for what they call a “decisive internal battle” with Yemeni government forces. The moves double as preparation for entering the Iran war and as a hedge against a ground offensive if they do.
Jerusalem Post: Saudi officials are working to keep the Houthis out of the war, while Washington and Jerusalem are avoiding provocation — because if the Houthis activate, the Red Sea closes alongside the Strait of Hormuz and every alternative energy corridor disappears simultaneously. Houthi Political Bureau member Mohammed al-Bukhaiti: “Our finger is on the trigger.”
Jewish Breaking News: Alibaba sellers are openly listing long-range one-way attack drones — near-identical to Iran’s Shahed-136 — for under $50,000, marketed as “pesticide sprayers” and “aerial mapping equipment” while the fine print describes suicide strike capability with thermal imaging and AI guidance. The democratization of precision-strike drones via Chinese e-commerce is a proliferation problem no export control regime is designed to catch.
Diplomacy & Geopolitics
Jewish Chronicle: Iran affixed a propaganda sticker thanking Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez to a missile fired at Israeli civilians — part of a broader campaign that has also launched missiles “in memory of victims of Epstein’s island.” Spain barred the U.S. from using joint military bases for strikes on Iran. Trump threatened to suspend trade ties. Israel’s Foreign Ministry reminded Madrid that these missiles can reach Europe.
Domestic & Law
Israel National News: Ben Gvir kept the Burj Alluqluq complex in Jerusalem’s Old City closed after determining it served as a PA terror-support branch — the closure remains in place even after three separate appeals have been filed by radical groups. Sources close to Ben Gvir credited the policy with producing a Ramadan with no murders of Jews for the first time in a decade.
Economy, Tech & Infrastructure
Globes: TASE’s switch to Friday trading tripled average daily volume compared to former Sundays — NIS 3.3 billion versus NIS 1.1 billion — with foreign investors accounting for 44% of Friday trading versus 15% on Sundays last year. Foreign participation increased during the war itself, jumping from 35% to 41% of daily trading, and dual-listed stock volume nearly doubled as arbitrage activity surged.
Culture, Religion & Society
JNS: FIRE told Catholic University of America it cannot require Students Supporting Israel to include opposing viewpoints as a condition for hosting events featuring Rep. Randy Fine on campus Jew-hate and Col. (res.) Dany Tirza on the security fence in Judea and Samaria. FIRE program counsel Jessie Appleby: “What opposite view is the university looking for — a pro-antisemitism view?”
Israel National News: Yad Vashem Chairman Dani Dayan met Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican to discuss Holocaust remembrance collaboration, documentation access from Vatican archives, and the rise of global Jew-hate. Dayan invited the Pope to visit Yad Vashem — continuing a line of papal visits stretching back through three predecessors.
Developments to Watch
Gaza & Southern Theater
Hamas taxing 4,200 weekly truck convoys — Hamas levies a 15% fee on every shipment entering Gaza, replacing Qatari dependency with a self-sustaining revenue model while recruiting, refurbishing tunnels, and smuggling drones. The organization is rebuilding a tax base — the clearest marker of governing authority — while international attention stays fixed on Iran. LIKELY TO ESCALATE
Regional Axis (Iran, Houthis, Militias)
Iran deploys naval mines in Strait of Hormuz — U.S. intelligence estimates Iran has placed approximately a dozen mines in the Strait. Mines do not require a navy to enforce a blockade.
Houthis mobilize on five frontlines — Houthi forces began major troop movements across Hodeidah, Taiz, Lahj, and Marib, reinforcing forward positions and surging recruitment. The mobilization serves dual purposes: preparing to enter the Iran war and pre-empting a Yemeni army offensive if they do. LIKELY TO ESCALATE
Diplomatic & Legal
Islamabad meeting possible this week — Mediating countries are attempting to convene U.S. and Iranian officials — potentially Ghalibaf, Witkoff, Kushner, and Vance — in Pakistan this week. Pakistani army chief Asim Munir spoke with Trump Sunday; the timeline compresses against the extended five-day Hormuz ultimatum and the reported April 9 U.S. target for concluding the war. LIKELY TO ESCALATE
82nd Airborne deployment under consideration — The Pentagon is weighing deployment of roughly 3,000 paratroopers to support potential operations including a Kharg Island seizure, with Marines securing infrastructure first.
Home Front & Politics
Knesset recesses next Tuesday until May — The Knesset is just about to enter recess just after passing the rabbinical courts bill, with no scheduled security or home front legislation during the break. On Thursday, with barely any time left before the recess, the coalition must pass the budget. The government will fight a multifront war for at least another month with the legislature dark.
Three hundred and thirty launchers gone. Ten missiles a day where there were ninety. A Supreme Leader who cannot appear on camera and a parliament speaker denying the negotiations he may be conducting. The regime is breaking apart — and the only question worth asking is whether fourteen days of continued strikes and a diplomatic channel nobody will publicly admit exists can produce an outcome that holds after the bombs stop. In Gaza, Hamas is collecting taxes. In the Knesset, the lights are about to go dark until May. The war is being won in Tehran. Whether it is being lost everywhere else depends on what Jerusalem does with the time it has left.
— Uri Zehavi · Intelligence Editor
With Modi Zehavi · Data + Research Analyst
Someone in your life is still getting their Middle East analysis from outlets that can't tell you how many Iranian launchers are left or why Hamas is collecting a 15% tariff on trucks — fix that.